Market Overview for Terra/Tether USDt (LUNAUSDT) – 24-Hour

• Price dipped from 0.1545 to 0.1523 amid mixed momentum signals.
• Volatility expanded on the morning sell-off, with strong volume in the 19:30–20:00 ET range.
• RSI and MACD showed divergence, suggesting potential for a pullback.
• Key support at 0.1520 tested multiple times, with a possible bounce forming.
• Overbought conditions cleared after a 3% intraday decline, opening consolidation phase.

The Terra/Tether USDt (LUNAUSDT) pair opened at 0.1534 on 2025-09-10 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1545, touched a low of 0.1512, and closed at 0.1523 on 2025-09-11 12:00 ET. Total volume traded over the 24-hour window was 9,771,493.36 LUNA, with a total notional turnover of 1,490.63 USD.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours showed a bearish bias, with a distinct decline in the early hours of 9/11, punctuated by a key bearish engulfing pattern at 19:30 ET, which marked a move from 0.1526 to 0.1514. A large bearish body confirmed the reversal of prior bullish momentum. Resistance levels emerged near 0.1535–0.1545, with 0.1530 serving as a short-term pivot. A doji at 02:45 ET and a bullish pinocchio at 05:45 ET hinted at potential consolidation or reversal, but failed to hold against the downward pressure.

Volatility & Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 9/10–9/11 transition, with the price dropping below the lower Bollinger Band as early as 19:30 ET. The bands expanded in width during the sell-off, reflecting increased uncertainty. As the price approached the 0.1520 psychological level, the bands began to contract slightly, indicating a possible stabilization phase. The current price of 0.1523 resides just above the 20-period lower band, suggesting a potential for a bounce or a test of support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative at 19:30 ET, with the line crossing below the signal line, confirming a bearish momentum shift. Fast RSI dropped to the mid-40s from the 60s during the morning decline, signaling moderate oversold conditions by the late afternoon. A divergence between price and RSI during the 9/11 morning session indicated a possible exhaustion of bearish momentum, though it was not enough to reverse the trend. The current RSI sits at 48.2, indicating a neutral zone with no strong overbought or oversold readings.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked notably at 19:30 ET with a 276,203.93 LUNA traded candle, coinciding with the bearish engulfing pattern. This was the largest single candle in the dataset. Turnover also increased sharply, but not at the same rate as volume, indicating a bearish confirmation. Later, at 07:30 ET and 11:45 ET, volume also spiked, but without strong directional bias. A divergence between volume and price during the 09:45–10:30 ET period suggested weakening momentum on the short side.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the major 0.1512–0.1545 swing, 0.1532 (38.2%) and 0.1523 (61.8%) levels are currently being tested. The 61.8% retrace at 0.1523 aligns with recent support, suggesting a potential bounce or consolidation. On the 15-minute chart, intra-swing retracement levels show 0.1526–0.1528 as key pivots, with 0.1523 acting as a critical floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed behavior of LUNAUSDT over the past 24 hours, a backtest strategy could be constructed using the 20-period EMA as a dynamic support line. A short entry could be triggered when price closes below the EMA with confirmation from a bearish engulfing pattern and a MACD crossover below zero. A stop loss would be placed at the most recent swing high (0.1532–0.1535), while the target would be set at the next Fibonacci level at 0.1515. The volume-based divergence observed at 09:45 ET suggests that this setup has a high probability of success in a continuation pattern, particularly if the 0.1523 level holds.