Market Overview: Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Price surged 2.27% over 24 hours, closing at $0.1545 after a bullish breakout in early morning trading.
• High volume clustered between 04:15–04:45 ET and 08:30–09:00 ET, coinciding with sharp price moves toward $0.1558.
• RSI pushed into overbought territory, suggesting potential consolidation or pullback in near term.
• Bollinger Bands showed a mid-day expansion, indicating increased volatility amid accumulation.
• No major bearish divergences observed, but a short-term consolidation may follow current price highs.

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at $0.1478 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET and closed at $0.1545 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.1571 and a low of $0.1469. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 11,331,536.65, with a notional turnover of $1,760,423.31. The pair has shown increasing volatility and bullish momentum in recent sessions.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish ascending triangle pattern on the 15-minute chart, breaking out at $0.1558 on 04:15 ET. A strong green candle followed, signaling potential accumulation. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the morning low of $0.1469, but failed to hold as buyers re-entered. A doji appeared around $0.1536, indicating indecision after a sharp rise. Key support levels include $0.1523, $0.1515, and $0.1502, while resistance is at $0.1558, $0.1565, and $0.1575.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming short-term bullish momentum. The 50-period MA acted as dynamic support at $0.1515, while the 100-period and 200-period daily MAs held at $0.1530 and $0.1522 respectively, indicating a longer-term bullish trend. Price appears to have moved into a phase of retesting key moving averages, with a potential shift in trend to the upside if buyers maintain control.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line in the early hours, confirming a bullish divergence. RSI reached 69 at the close, entering overbought territory, suggesting a potential consolidation or pullback. However, the lack of bearish divergence on RSI (versus price) implies bullish momentum could continue. The MACD histogram expanded at the top of the range, indicating strong buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly in the early morning hours, with Bollinger Bands expanding from $0.1522–$0.1542 to $0.1525–$0.1571. Price closed near the upper band at $0.1545, suggesting strong accumulation. A retest of the lower band around $0.1525 may occur before a further bullish move. The expansion indicates heightened market interest and potential for continuation or correction.

Volume & TurnoverVolume spiked at 04:15 ET, corresponding to a $0.1558 high, and again at 08:30 ET with a $0.1551 close. Total turnover increased by 37.5% compared to the previous day. The price-volume correlation remained strong throughout, with no bearish divergence observed. However, a slight flattening in volume in the late morning and afternoon suggests some profit-taking.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $0.1469 to $0.1571, the 38.2% retracement is at $0.1522, and the 61.8% at $0.1546, where price found support and consolidated. A break above $0.1558 could target $0.1571 as the next Fibonacci extension level. A retest of the 50% level at $0.1520 may happen, but sustained volume should help buyers hold key support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy using a 15-minute chart and a moving average crossover (20-period above 50-period) with confirmation from the RSI (above 50) and a bullish engulfing pattern showed potential for high-probability entries. The strategy would have entered long at $0.1535 on 08:30 ET, with a stop-loss at $0.1525 and a take-profit at $0.1558. The trade would have captured a 1.5% gain, aligning with the observed volume and momentum patterns. This approach could be refined by incorporating Bollinger Band breakouts to enhance entry precision and risk management.