Market Overview for Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) closed lower after a volatile 24-hour session, with price fluctuating between key support and resistance levels.
• Momentum weakened in the latter half of the period, as RSI and MACD failed to confirm bullish price attempts.
• Volatility expanded in the first half before a contraction, with Bollinger Bands indicating compressed price action.
• Volume surged in the early hours of the morning, aligning with a sharp price drop but lacking a corresponding increase in turnover.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the 0.1458 resistance, potentially signaling a short-term reversal.

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at 0.144 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET and closed at 0.1445 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The 24-hour window saw a high of 0.1462 and a low of 0.1423. Total volume reached 9,303,417.09 with notional turnover of approximately $1,354,672 (based on average price). The price action reflected mixed signals between buyers and sellers.

The structure of the 15-minute candles reveals multiple key levels. A clear resistance cluster formed between 0.1453 and 0.1458, which the price tested repeatedly but failed to breach. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the 19:00–19:15 ET candle, confirming a short-term reversal. Support appeared to hold at 0.1443, but a breakdown below that level into the 0.1431 area could trigger further bearish momentum. A doji at 0.1447 suggested indecision and may precede a directional move.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed into a bearish crossover, with the 50-period line crossing below the 20-period line. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) remained in a neutral-to-bullish configuration, but the 15-minute bearish trend suggests a short-term divergence. MACD moved into negative territory, with the signal line crossing below the histogram, indicating weakening bullish momentum. RSI dropped below 50 during the latter half of the period, signaling a shift in sentiment toward bearishness. However, RSI did not reach oversold levels, implying the decline could continue.

Bollinger Bands tightened during the early morning hours before expanding as price moved into the 0.1443–0.1458 range. The price remained within the bands for most of the period, suggesting the market remained in a defined range. However, the contraction followed by expansion typically precedes a breakout, and the recent action may be setting up for a directional move. Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.1449 (38.2%) and 0.1443 (61.8%) provided temporary support, with the price bouncing off both levels before continuing its descent.

Backtest Hypothesis
The observed bearish engulfing pattern at 0.1458 and subsequent price action suggest a potential short-term sell-off. A backtest could evaluate a strategy that triggers a short entry at 0.1458 with a stop loss above 0.1461 and a target at 0.1431. This setup would aim to capitalize on the resistance breakdown and the weakening RSI. Given the 15-minute chart’s bearish crossover and the volume confirmation at the morning lows, this hypothesis aligns with the technical signals of a short-term bearish bias.