Market Overview: Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) on 2025-09-23

• Price closed near the 12:00 ET high at $0.1382, showing moderate bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 18:00 ET as price pushed above 0.1383 and approached 0.14.
• Volume spiked sharply in the final hours, with turnover rising alongside price action, suggesting strong participation.
• RSI reached 62 by 08:00 ET, indicating moderate bullish momentum, while MACD turned positive in the late hours.

Terra/Tether (LUNAUSDT) opened at $0.1382 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.1413, and closed at $0.1407 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. The 24-hour volume amounted to 24,786,430.21, with a total turnover of approximately $3,464,657. The price action reflected a shift from consolidation to a moderate breakout during the early hours of the New York session.

Structure & Formations

The price tested a key psychological level at $0.1383 multiple times before breaking out of a descending wedge pattern late in the New York session. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 08:00 ET, confirming a potential reversal after a brief pullback. A doji candle appeared at 04:30 ET, signaling indecision before the breakout. The price now appears to be consolidating near $0.1407, with immediate support at $0.1397 and resistance at $0.1412.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price moved above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, indicating a bullish crossover. The 50-period line crossed above the 100-period line early on, confirming a positive trend. For daily analysis, the 200-period SMA remains flat near $0.1375, with the price now comfortably above all major moving averages, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive in the late hours of the session, with a rising histogram suggesting growing bullish momentum. RSI rose to 62 by 08:00 ET and has since stabilized around 58, indicating moderate strength but no overbought conditions yet. There is no sign of divergence between price and RSI at this time, suggesting the rally remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 18:00 ET as the price moved out of a tight Bollinger Band contraction and into a wider range. The price currently sits near the upper band at $0.1413, suggesting a possible exhaustion of upward momentum. A pullback toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.1396 would align with a key Bollinger Band touch point.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakout phase, particularly in the 00:00–03:00 ET period, where turnover spiked with increased participation. The price and turnover moved in tandem, indicating strong conviction behind the breakout. Divergence is not currently present, as both price and volume confirm the recent bullish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.1396 has acted as a support, with the price bouncing from this level before pushing higher. The 38.2% retracement at $0.1404 has recently capped minor corrections, suggesting a key consolidation zone between $0.1396 and $0.1412.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering long on a bullish engulfing pattern followed by a close above the 20-period EMA, with a stop-loss placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This approach aligns with the observed breakout and volume confirmation. A target of $0.1415–$0.1420 could be set if the price breaks out of the current consolidation zone. Given the current momentum and volume structure, this strategy appears to offer a favorable risk-reward profile.