Market Overview for Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) - 2025-11-06

Summary
• LUNCUSDT drifted lower over 24 hours, closing below key support levels.
• Volume surged in the morning before tapering, suggesting short-term exhaustion.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum, with prices near Bollinger Band lower boundary.

Opening Narrative

Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) opened at $0.00003765 on 2025-11-05 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.00003768 and a low of $0.00003641 before closing at $0.00003530 as of 2025-11-06 12:00 ET. Total volume over 24 hours amounted to 271,981,187.96, with notional turnover reaching $9,847. The pair has shown consistent bearish bias, with price failing to retrace above key Fibonacci levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours shows a consistent bearish bias, with LUNCUSDT forming a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. A key support level appears to be forming around $0.00003530 (16:45 ET candle close), though it has been tested multiple times. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible at the $0.00003765 level on the 20:30 ET candle, indicating a strong short-term bearish signal. No major bullish reversal patterns have emerged, and price has struggled to hold above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the most recent 15-minute swing.

Moving Averages and MACD

The 15-minute chart shows LUNCUSDT below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, confirming a short-term downtrend. On the daily chart, price is also trading below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs, suggesting a medium-term bearish trend is intact. The MACD line remains in negative territory, with a bearish crossover occurring around 01:45 ET and maintaining a downward slope, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and RSI

Volatility has increased in the early morning session, with the Bollinger Bands widening slightly and price testing the lower band multiple times. This suggests bearish exhaustion may be approaching. The RSI is currently in oversold territory (~28), though it has not bounced meaningfully, signaling that the downward momentum may persist for a while longer. RSI divergence is not evident, but the indicator remains weak and flat.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked in the early morning hours, particularly between 00:45 ET and 01:00 ET, coinciding with the sharp drop to $0.00003765. This high-volume move confirmed the bearish breakout. However, volume has since declined, which may signal short-term consolidation. Notional turnover also showed a sharp spike in the early hours, but it has subsided afterward. Price and turnover are aligned in direction, but the lack of a bounce in either metric suggests bearish control remains strong.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish momentum and lack of reversal patterns, a potential backtesting strategy could involve shorting on a breakdown of key support levels (e.g., $0.00003530) with a stop above the nearest 15-minute swing high. The 14-period RSI is a critical indicator for confirming the strength of the bearish move, as well as for identifying potential oversold conditions that could trigger a bounce. However, due to the current lack of RSI data for LUNCUSDT, confirmation via alternative indicators like the MACD and volume is necessary. To proceed with the backtest, confirmation of the correct exchange ticker (e.g., BINANCE:LUNCUSDT) is required to fetch the missing RSI data.