Market Overview: Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) — 2025-10-05

• Price rose from $0.00005525 to $0.00005658, a ~2.4% increase over 24 hours.
• Momentum accelerated in the 5–7 AM ET window with a strong bullish breakout.
• Volatility remained moderate, with Bollinger Bands narrowing and then expanding.
• Volume surged during the breakout, confirming the bullish bias.
• RSI reached ~63, indicating momentum remains healthy but not overbought.

Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) opened at $0.00005525 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.00005745, and closed at $0.00005658 on 2025-10-05 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw total volume of 19,346,477,135.99 and notional turnover of $1,091,333.19. Price action reflected a gradual bullish ascent, with key upward momentum forming after 5:00 AM ET.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern near $0.00005590, followed by a strong trend continuation after the breakout at $0.00005650. A key support zone between $0.00005560 and $0.00005580 held well, while resistance emerged at $0.00005710–$0.00005730, where price paused before consolidating. The formation of multiple bullish inside bars in the midday period suggested temporary consolidation rather than bearish reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA, indicating a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 200-period MA, signaling a more significant shift in trend. The price closed above both the 50 and 200-period MAs, suggesting that the uptrend could continue if bullish momentum holds.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bullish crossover at ~05:30 AM ET, with the histogram expanding during the mid-morning surge, confirming the strength of the rally. RSI reached ~63, indicating strong bullish momentum but not overbought levels. However, a pullback below ~57 could signal weakening momentum or a retest of support.

Bollinger Bands

The price spent a significant portion of the 24-hour period within the Bollinger Bands, with a narrowing band width at 04:00 AM ET preceding the breakout. The subsequent expansion of the bands post-breakout suggests increasing volatility. A sustained move above the upper band at $0.00005710 could confirm a more aggressive bullish phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 05:00–07:00 AM ET period, coinciding with the $0.00005650 breakout. This volume confirmed the breakout rather than indicating a trap. The total notional turnover also aligned with the price rise, suggesting genuine buyer participation. Divergence between volume and price was not observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from $0.00005525 to $0.00005745, the price found support at 61.8% retracement ($0.00005605) and then continued upwards. The daily retracement levels showed a 38.2% retracement at $0.00005630, which was tested and held early in the day, suggesting a healthy bullish structure.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy could be designed to capitalize on the observed bullish breakout pattern and MACD crossover. Entering long on the 15-minute chart when the close crosses above the 20-period EMA and the MACD histogram turns positive, with a stop-loss at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, could provide a high-probability trade setup. This aligns with today’s price action and technical signals, suggesting it could be a robust approach for short-term traders.