Market Overview for Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) – 2025-09-22

• Price declined sharply from $0.00005995 to $0.00005571, signaling strong bearish momentum and a breakdown below key support levels.
• Volume surged during the late night–early morning sell-off, while turnover accelerated as price dropped below $0.00005800.
• RSI fell into oversold territory (~30), but price failed to rebound, suggesting weak near-term buying pressure.
• A potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is forming near $0.00005550, which could either offer support or trigger further losses.
• Volatility expanded overnight, with Bollinger Bands widening, hinting at a period of price consolidation or continuation.

Terra Classic/Tether (LUNCUSDT) opened at $0.00005982 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00005571 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. The pair hit a high of $0.00005995 and a low of $0.00005456 over the 24-hour window. Total volume traded amounted to 17,085,512,462.53, while notional turnover reached $942,079.41. A significant breakdown unfolded overnight as the price tested key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action reveals a sharp breakdown from the mid-$0.00005980s to the $0.00005570s, with bearish engulfing patterns appearing during the late-night sell-off. A long bearish shadow formed at $0.00005571 on the final 15-minute candle, indicating rejection at lower levels. Key support appears to reside near $0.00005550 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bear leg), while resistance holds at $0.00005800. A doji formed near $0.00005580, hinting at potential consolidation or a reversal attempt.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have diverged significantly, with the 50-period line well above the 20-period line, reinforcing bearish bias. On the daily chart, LUNCUSDT is trading well below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs, indicating prolonged bearish control. The price is expected to continue finding pressure until it tests the 61.8% Fibonacci level.

MACD & RSI

The 12/26 MACD has crossed below the signal line, forming a bearish crossover. The histogram is expanding as the price action continues downward. Meanwhile, the RSI has dropped to ~30, indicating oversold conditions, but price has not shown signs of reversal—suggesting exhaustion of the bearish trend. The divergence between RSI and price highlights the potential for a temporary bounce or further downward extension.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly overnight, with price trading near the lower band for much of the session. This suggests elevated volatility and bearish bias. Price action near the lower band without a rebound increases the likelihood of further downside. The narrowing of bands prior to the sell-off hinted at potential breakouts, and the current path appears to favor the downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 00:00–06:00 ET window, with massive notional turnover reported at 06:15 ET when price dropped to $0.00005622. The spike in volume confirms bearish momentum and aligns with a breakdown below critical support. However, volume dipped after the 06:15 ET sell-off, suggesting waning bearish conviction. Price and turnover have remained in sync throughout the session, offering confirmation of the bearish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent bear leg from $0.00005995 to $0.00005456 defines a key Fibonacci structure. The 38.2% retracement level is at $0.00005783, and the 61.8% level is at $0.00005550. The price has now tested the 61.8% level, which could serve as a pivot point. If this level fails, the next target is the 78.6% retracement near $0.00005360. A rebound from $0.00005550 could see a test of the 38.2% level on a pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current structure and technical indicators, a backtest strategy could focus on a short entry on a breakdown below $0.00005550, with a stop above $0.00005600 and a target at the 78.6% retracement near $0.00005360. A buy stop at $0.00005600 could also be used for a countertrend trade if RSI and MACD show signs of divergence. This setup aligns with the observed bearish momentum and Fibonacci structure, offering a high-probability trade in a clear trend context.