Market Overview: SushiSwap/Tether (SUSHIUSDT) – Sharp Sell-Off and Key Breakdown

• SushiSwap/Tether (SUSHIUSDT) fell sharply from $0.5358 to $0.4933, showing strong bearish momentum.
• Price closed near the session low with increased volume and high volatility during the sell-off.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern and RSI oversold conditions suggest potential for further downside.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price dropped, indicating a period of high volatility.
• Turnover spiked over $1M during the key breakdown phase, indicating significant participation.

Price Action and Structure

SushiSwap/Tether (SUSHIUSDT) opened at $0.5209 on October 29, 2025, reached a high of $0.5385, and closed at $0.4933 on October 30, 2025. The 24-hour period saw a significant bearish move, with price collapsing below prior support levels. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed during the early part of the sell-off, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Key support appears to be testing at $0.4818–$0.4804, while resistance lies at $0.5104–$0.5131. A doji and long lower wicks during the late-night to morning hours indicate potential short-term support levels.

Moving Averages and Trend

Using the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, price has clearly broken below both lines, signaling a short-term bearish bias. The 20-period MA was around $0.5275, and the 50-period MA near $0.5300 at the start of the period, but by the close, price was far below both. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages would likely be higher still, indicating a larger bearish trend. The current price is well below all major moving averages, reinforcing the downward bias.

Momentum and Oscillators

The RSI has entered and remained in oversold territory for much of the 24-hour period, dipping as low as the mid-30s and occasionally into the 20s, suggesting a potential rebound may be due. However, the MACD has been in negative territory and has shown bearish divergence, with the histogram shrinking as price declines. The combination of an oversold RSI and bearish MACD suggests that while a short-term bounce is possible, the dominant trend remains bearish.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly during the sell-off, indicating heightened volatility. Price has traded below the lower band for much of the session, confirming a strong bearish move. The contraction in volatility seen earlier in the session may have acted as a precursor to the breakdown. A potential reversal could be signaled if price manages to close above the 20-period Bollinger Band, but the current positioning remains deep in bearish territory.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key Fibonacci levels include 61.8% at $0.4906 and 38.2% at $0.5140. Price has found a temporary floor around the 61.8% level, but it has not yet managed to bounce above the 50% retracement, which stands at $0.5099. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels could now serve as key support if the downtrend continues, with the 61.8% retracement of the broader move likely at $0.4700 or lower. Traders may watch these levels closely for potential short-term bounces or further breakdowns.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed RSI oversold conditions and bearish MACD divergence, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions when RSI falls below 30 (oversold) and exiting after 14 days or at a target RSI of 50. This approach would align with the typical overbought/oversold RSI methodology and could be tested on SUSHIUSDT and potentially extended to other altcoins in the top 50 market cap. Using a 14-day RSI period would capture the broader trend while minimizing false signals. A backtest would allow us to assess the frequency and profitability of such signals in a bearish context.