Market Overview for SushiSwap/Tether (SUSHIUSDT)

Summary
• Price action formed a shallow bullish bounce after hitting a 24-hour low near 0.3983.
• RSI signaled oversold levels below 30 early in the session, with a partial recovery.
• Volatility increased mid-day, as seen in the widening Bollinger Bands and high-volume swings.

SushiSwap/Tether (SUSHIUSDT) opened at 0.438 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.445 and a low of 0.3983, and closed at 0.445 by 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour trading volume reached approximately 7.8 million SUSHI, with a total turnover of ~$3.48 million. This marks a notable increase in activity compared to recent sessions.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a distinct bearish reversal pattern in the early session, with a sharp dip from 0.4334 to 0.4179, followed by a moderate rebound. A bullish harami pattern emerged around 08:15–08:45 ET as price bounced within a consolidation range. Key support levels appeared to form near 0.4102 and 0.3983, while resistance levels were observed at 0.4305 and 0.4405.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs showed a bearish crossover mid-session, but the price reversed and closed above both, suggesting short-term buyers re-entered. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200 EMA lines trended downward, reinforcing a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram flipped to positive territory in the final hours of the session, indicating a potential short-term shift in momentum. RSI, after hitting a morning low of 28, recovered to 52 by the close, signaling a tentative move out of oversold conditions. However, the RSI line remains below the 50 threshold, suggesting a cautious outlook.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the day’s lows, with the Bollinger Band width peaking at 0.031 at 20:30 ET. Price briefly touched the lower band (0.3983) and closed near the mid-band, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The upper band reached 0.4447, aligning with the day’s high.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 03:30–04:15 ET and again at 22:15–23:45 ET, coinciding with key support and resistance tests. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with the largest single-candle turnover of $326K recorded at 22:15 ET. Price and turnover showed some divergence in the morning hours, suggesting mixed market sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fib levels for the 0.3983–0.445 swing showed 0.4187 (38.2%) and 0.4277 (61.8%) as key potential support levels. The price failed to hold the 38.2% level earlier in the session but found buying interest near the 61.8% level in the latter half.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD-Golden-Cross strategy tested over 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-05 delivered a negative return of -85.7% on SUSHIUSDT, with an annualized return of -26.7% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.67. The results highlight the challenges of using a momentum-driven strategy in a prolonged bear market like SUSHI’s, where the pair has trended lower for extended periods. The average trade return of -3.45% and the low win rate of ~7.8% underscore the need for additional risk filters, such as trend-following moving averages, to improve robustness. The 7-day hard exit helped prevent deeper losses in some scenarios but could also cause early exits during consolidations. A potential refinement would be to combine MACD with 200-day MA trend filtering, or introduce tighter stop-losses or profit targets.