Market Overview: SushiSwap/Tether (SUSHIUSDT) on 2025-10-11

• SushiSwap/Tether (SUSHIUSDT) dropped sharply on a high-volume sell-off, breaking below key support levels.
• Price action shows bearish momentum, with RSI and MACD indicating oversold conditions and potential for further downside.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the early hours, with Bollinger Bands widening, signaling a potential consolidation phase ahead.
• Volume increased dramatically during the sell-off but has since decreased, suggesting traders are waiting for a catalyst or reversal.

SushiSwap/Tether (SUSHIUSDT) opened at $0.6711 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.6771, and fell to a low of $0.0507 before closing at $0.5169 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total volume across the 24-hour period reached 40,748,796.8, with a notional turnover of $17,331,195.6, reflecting intense selling pressure and volatility.

The price movement showed a bearish breakdown below prior support levels, particularly around $0.6512 and $0.5973, where prior resistance turned into support and then failed. A large bearish candle on the 15-minute chart at 21:00 ET reflected a sharp drop of nearly 10%, closing at $0.5973 after opening at $0.6501. This was followed by a further breakdown into $0.4023, where the price briefly stabilized. The structure appears to suggest exhaustion at key levels, but buyers reentered the market in the early hours of 2025-10-11, leading to a modest recovery back above $0.5100. A potential bullish reversal may form near $0.5169, but the move is still too early to confirm.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward bias. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages confirmed the trend, as price action remained below both. The MACD indicator turned negative during the breakdown and remained in bearish territory, signaling continued selling pressure. The RSI moved into oversold territory, reaching as low as 22.3, but has since risen to around 38.2, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sell-off phase, with price briefly dipping below the lower band and now stabilizing within the channel, indicating a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Volume spiked during the sell-off in the early part of the 24-hour period, with the most volatile candle showing a volume of 1,487,100.8. Notional turnover also surged during this time, showing strong correlation with the price decline. However, volume has decreased sharply in the last 6 hours, with a reduction in turnover suggesting a lack of conviction from sellers. This could signal either a potential pause in the bearish trend or a setup for a short-term reversal. Divergences between price and volume are not prominent at this stage, but traders should watch for any further discrepancies as key support levels like $0.5000 and $0.4800 come into focus.

The Fibonacci retracement levels for the 15-minute chart highlight key areas of potential interest during the sell-off. The $0.6512 and $0.5973 levels acted as previous resistance-turned-support, with both levels failing to hold. The 61.8% retracement level (around $0.5170) is currently showing a potential support zone for the price. On the daily chart, the retracement levels from the previous high of $0.6771 to the low of $0.0507 suggest critical levels at $0.5000 (38.2%), $0.4000 (50%), and $0.2750 (61.8%). These levels may define the next directional movement, particularly if the current consolidation phase fails to produce a bullish breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for SUSHIUSDT could focus on identifying key retracement levels and divergences between RSI and price action. For example, an entry could be triggered when the price breaks below a critical Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8%) on strong volume and the RSI remains in oversold territory, suggesting a potential rebound. Stops could be placed just above the recent swing high, while targets could be set at the next key Fibonacci level or a move toward equilibrium with the 50-period moving average. The current setup suggests a medium-term bearish outlook with potential for short-term volatility, making this an attractive scenario for a scalping or swing trading strategy that combines price action and momentum indicators.