Market Overview for SuperVerse/Bitcoin (SUPERBTC)

• Price declined 9.2% in 24 hours, closing at 4.59e-06 with a bearish bias.
• Volume surged at 07:00–08:00 ET, confirming downward momentum.
• Key support at 4.56e-06 tested; RSI near oversold, but momentum remains weak.
• Bollinger Bands indicate low volatility, with price near lower band.
• MACD histogram flattened, suggesting exhaustion in the downtrend.

SuperVerse/Bitcoin (SUPERBTC) opened at 4.74e-06 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4.59e-06 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low reached 4.54e-06, while the high hit 4.74e-06. Total volume was 207,522.0 with a notional turnover of approximately $953 (assuming 1 BTC = $60,000).

The price action over the past 24 hours formed a broad bearish channel, with a sharp breakdown beginning at 03:30 ET. Key support levels at 4.62e-06 and 4.56e-06 were tested, with the 4.56e-06 level appearing particularly significant as a potential pivot point. The final 15-minute candle at 12:00 ET closed at 4.59e-06, near the 4.56e-06–4.60e-06 consolidation range.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show the 20-period MA below the 50-period MA, confirming the short-term bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, suggesting a longer-term bearish setup. A key Fibonacci retracement level at 4.57e-06 (61.8% of the last major swing) was reached and held briefly before a further decline, indicating a potential retest.

The RSI is in oversold territory near 28, but price continues to trend lower, signaling a weak bounce potential. MACD is in negative territory with a flattening histogram, suggesting that the downward momentum may be exhausting. Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction in volatility followed by a sharp expansion, with price now near the lower band. While the oversold RSI could indicate a short-term bounce, the bearish MA and MACD suggest the trend remains intact for the next 24 hours. Traders should watch for a potential rebound off 4.55e-06 or a break below this level for further downside.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration involves a long entry on a 15-minute RSI divergence from oversold levels (RSI < 30) combined with a bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., hammer or bullish engulfing) near a key Fibonacci level. A stop-loss would be placed below the most recent swing low, and a take-profit target would be set at the nearest resistance level or 1.5x the risk.
Given today’s data, the last bullish candle at 09:30 ET showed a hammer formation near the 4.62e-06 level, followed by a false break. If the RSI had triggered a long signal at that point, the strategy would have generated a short-term gain as the price rebounded. However, the subsequent breakdown below 4.60e-06 suggests that the long signal may have been premature. A refinement could include adding a confirmation through volume or price action beyond the Fibonacci level. This highlights the importance of integrating both candlestick signals and volume validation in the backtest model.