Market Overview for SuperRare/Tether (RAREUSDT)

• SuperRare/Tether traded in a tight range near $0.0358, with a bearish close below 12:00 ET open.
• Volume surged during the overnight session, signaling increased selling pressure after 00:00 ET.
• Price tested a key support at $0.0357–$0.0358, but failed to hold, raising concerns about further downside.
• RSI-14 would have indicated oversold conditions near $0.0355, but data is unavailable for confirmation.
• Bollinger Bands constricted earlier in the session before a sharp break to the downside.

SuperRare/Tether (RAREUSDT) opened at $0.0388 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0356 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of $0.0392 and a low of $0.0348. Total volume reached 12,112,747.3 and turnover amounted to $450.58 million. The price action suggests a weakening trend amid declining momentum.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern reveals a strong bearish bias, particularly from the 20:30 ET session onward. A long-bodied bearish candle at 00:00 ET marked a key pivot point where the price fell from $0.0359 to $0.0355. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 00:15 ET and 00:30 ET, confirming a breakdown in sentiment. A doji at 02:00 ET signaled indecision, but the following candle broke below key support at $0.0358–$0.0357, reinforcing bearish pressure.

Moving Averages & MACD

On a 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are below the current price, indicating bearish bias. The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the overnight hours, forming a bearish crossover that aligns with the price’s sharp decline. This divergence between price and indicator suggests a continuation of the downward momentum could be likely.

Bollinger Bands and RSI

Bollinger Bands tightened between 03:00 ET and 05:00 ET before the price broke sharply to the downside, signaling a potential breakout. The price closed near the lower band, suggesting a possible continuation of the bearish move. While RSI data was unavailable for precise confirmation, the behavior of the price and volume indicates the pair may have been nearing oversold territory at $0.0355–$0.0356.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically after 00:00 ET, with over 2.2 million contracts traded at 11:15 ET as the price gapped lower. Turnover increased in tandem with the price drop, showing consistent selling pressure. However, volume weakened slightly after 04:00 ET, indicating a potential slowdown in bearish momentum. Divergences between price and volume are not prominent, suggesting the selling was broad-based rather than panic-driven.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.0355 to $0.0363 shows the current price near the 61.8% level at $0.0358. A break below $0.0355 could target the 78.6% level at $0.0351. On the daily chart, retracement from the 24-hour high of $0.0392 to the low of $0.0348 places the current level near the 61.8% retracement at $0.0366. A sustained break below $0.0348 could expose the 78.6% level at $0.0342.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy would involve monitoring RSI-14 for oversold conditions (RSI < 30) at key Fibonacci levels like $0.0355 and $0.0358. Given the price’s inability to hold above $0.0358, the next entry signal might be a rejection from this level followed by a bounce back above it. However, without a functional RSI series, the accuracy of such a strategy is currently unconfirmed. A more robust approach would involve manually supplying RSI-14 values or an alternative proxy for volatility and momentum.