Market Overview for SuperRare/Tether (RAREUSDT) on 2025-09-20

• SuperRare/Tether (RAREUSDT) traded in a tight range, consolidating between 0.0554 and 0.0567 with bearish bias in the final hours.
• Price failed to break above 0.0565, showing bearish momentum reversal and weakening bullish conviction.
• Volatility expanded slightly in early ET hours, followed by a contraction as bear pressure took over.
• RSI approached overbought levels early, followed by a pullback into neutral territory, suggesting indecision.
• Notional turnover increased in late ET and overnight, with a sharp drop post-08:00 ET despite ongoing bear pressure.

SuperRare/Tether (RAREUSDT) opened at 0.0560 at 12:00 ET-1, reaching a high of 0.0567 and a low of 0.0552 before closing at 0.0558 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a total volume of 58,358,565.6 and a notional turnover of 3,291,901.91 over the 24-hour window. Price action reflected a gradual bearish shift, especially after 23:30 ET when a large bearish candle broke key support levels and triggered a pullback.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed multiple bearish engulfing patterns and a key bearish reversal candle at 23:30 ET, which confirmed a breakdown from a recent consolidation range. A descending triangle formation was visible from 16:00 ET to 23:30 ET, with the final break below 0.0557 confirming a bearish outlook. Key support levels emerged at 0.0556 and 0.0553, with resistance lingering around 0.0562 and 0.0565. A potential double-bottom structure was forming around 0.0553–0.0555 in the last two hours of the day.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish crossover, with the 50-period MA below the 20-period MA. The daily chart showed the 50-period MA dipping below the 100- and 200-period MAs, reinforcing the bearish setup. The 50-period MA on the daily chart acted as a dynamic resistance, with the price struggling to cross it during the session.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained bearish throughout the day, with a negative histogram and bearish crossover. The RSI peaked at 62 early in the session, suggesting overbought conditions, before dropping to neutral levels and then into oversold territory as the bearish pressure intensified. This indicated a loss of bullish momentum and increasing bearish control. The RSI failed to retest the overbought zone after 20:00 ET, suggesting bearish dominance.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained moderate, with the Bollinger Band width fluctuating between 0.0003 and 0.0004. The price spent most of the session near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating bearish pressure and lack of conviction on the buy side. A volatility contraction was observed between 04:00–06:00 ET, followed by a slight expansion in the afternoon, suggesting potential for a breakout attempt, which ultimately failed.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the bearish breakdown at 23:30 ET, with a large bearish candle confirming the move. This was accompanied by a corresponding increase in notional turnover, indicating genuine selling pressure. In contrast, volume during the attempted rebounds between 00:00–04:00 ET was lower, suggesting weak buying interest. The divergence between bullish price action and weak volume suggested a lack of conviction in the short-term buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from 0.0552 to 0.0567, key retracement levels of 38.2% (0.0561) and 61.8% (0.0557) were tested multiple times. The 61.8% level at 0.0557 acted as strong support during the late ET and overnight session. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels aligned with the 0.0556 and 0.0553 support levels, indicating potential for further consolidation or a test of 0.0552 in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position when RAREUSDT breaks below a descending triangle formation on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing candle and bearish MACD crossover. A stop-loss is placed at the upper boundary of the triangle, and the target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the swing. This aligns with today’s price action, where a bearish engulfing candle at 23:30 ET confirmed the breakdown and the 61.8% retracement at 0.0557 was tested. The strategy could be backtested over the last 30 days to assess consistency in similar market conditions.