Market Overview: Sun/Tether (SUNUSDT) - 24-Hour Volatility and Divergence

• Sun/Tether (SUNUSDT) traded in a wide range of 0.02619–0.03000 over 24 hours, reflecting volatile sentiment.
• A large volume spike early in the morning ET (00:15) accompanied a sharp price rebound from 0.02847 to 0.02932.
• RSI and MACD suggested overbought conditions in the early hours, followed by a bearish divergence later.
• Volume and turnover confirmed the bearish shift post-05:00 ET, with a 57% drop in price over the next 5 hours.
• The price closed near the 23.6% Fibonacci level from the recent high, suggesting potential near-term support.

Sun/Tether (SUNUSDT) opened at 0.02883 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.03000 on 2025-09-25 at 00:15 ET, and closed at 0.02696 at 12:00 ET the same day. The 24-hour volume was 396,861,456.0 and total turnover amounted to approximately $10,277,292 (notional).

The price experienced a sharp upward move in the early hours of the morning, fueled by a massive volume spike. This was followed by a sharp correction that saw the price drop below key moving averages, including the 20-period and 50-period lines on the 15-minute chart. A bearish divergence in RSI and a crossover below the 20-period MA indicated a shift in momentum, suggesting bearish control over the past 8–10 hours.

Looking at structures, a key resistance level formed around 0.02907, where the price stalled multiple times in the earlier part of the day. A large bearish engulfing pattern appeared after 01:30 ET, marking a pivotal reversal signal. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the morning rally, showing heightened volatility, but contracted during the later decline, which could indicate a potential pause in the trend.

The price closed near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the 0.03000 high, offering a potential short-term support. However, a break below 0.0267 could trigger a test of the 61.8% level near 0.0262. Volume and turnover remained elevated during the bearish phase, confirming the strength of the sell-off. The RSI has yet to enter oversold territory, suggesting the decline may not have bottomed.

A potential continuation of the downward trend is likely in the next 24 hours, provided the price holds above 0.0267. A break below this level could accelerate the bearish momentum. Investors should remain cautious of thin liquidity in the lower range and monitor volume for signs of exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on capturing short-term momentum shifts using a combination of RSI and Bollinger Band crossovers. The hypothesis suggests entering long positions when RSI exits oversold territory and the price closes above the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop loss just below the recent swing low. Conversely, short entries are triggered when RSI enters overbought territory and the price closes above the upper Bollinger Band, with a stop loss above the recent swing high. Given the recent bearish divergence and overbought correction, a short setup may have been triggered at 01:30 ET, aligning with the engulfing pattern and confirming volume.