Market Overview for Sun/Tether (SUNUSDT) on 2025-09-18

• Sun/Tether (SUNUSDT) rose sharply over 24 hours, reaching 0.02456 from 0.02028 with massive volume.
• Momentum surged past 200-day trend with RSI hitting overbought levels post-0.02259.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened from 0.0202–0.0204 to 0.0219–0.0245, reflecting aggressive bullish moves.
• Volume surged over 200M in final 15-minute candle, confirming strength but signaling caution.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.02166–0.02285 acted as key support, now likely to face pressure on pullbacks.

Sun/Tether (SUNUSDT) opened at $0.02028 at 12:00 ET–1 and surged to a high of $0.02456 by 11:00 AM ET, closing at $0.02242 at the 24-hour mark. Total traded volume reached 1,497,698,773 units, with notional turnover amounting to $34.2 million. The aggressive price movement and strong volume confirmed a bullish breakout following a consolidation phase.

Structure and formations showed a strong bullish bias, with a key breakout from a 15-minute consolidation range between $0.0203–0.0206. A strong engulfing pattern formed on the 10:45 AM–11:00 AM candle, confirming the breakout. A large bullish candle with a long lower wick at $0.02242 (12:00 PM) suggested rejection of lower levels, reinforcing support around this price. A doji at $0.02235–0.02241 (11:15 AM) signaled short-term indecision. Key support appears at 0.02213 and 0.02186, while resistance is likely at 0.02263 and 0.02276.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed above the price late in the session, confirming bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was crossed above during the session, with the 200-period MA still below price, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward trend.

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The MACD crossed above the signal line in the morning and remained in positive territory through the day, confirming strong bullish momentum. RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) around 10:30 AM and again at 2:30 PM, signaling potential short-term pullbacks. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly from a 0.0202–0.0204 range early in the day to a 0.0219–0.0245 range by midday, indicating a surge in volatility. Price closed near the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting a continuation of bullish momentum but also a possible correction into overbought RSI levels.

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Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the major 15-minute move from 0.0203–0.02456 showed key levels at 0.02166 (38.2%), 0.02235 (61.8%), and 0.02305 (78.6%). Price tested and held above 0.02166 and 0.02235, suggesting strong support. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from the recent swing low at 0.0203 to the high at 0.02456 show key resistance at 0.02305 and 0.02372.

Backtest Hypothesis

The breakout strategy described focuses on entering long positions after a bullish engulfing pattern forms above key support levels, confirmed by a close above the 20-period MA. Based on the 15-minute data, such a setup was evident at 10:45 AM with a strong candle closing above 0.02273 and the 20-period MA. This could be used as a trigger point for entering long positions with a stop-loss below the 0.02235 support. The MACD confirmation and RSI divergence suggest a high-probability setup for a short-term trade.

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