Market Overview for SUIUSDT: September 26, 2025

• SUIUSDT dropped 2.3% over the last 24 hours, closing near a psychological support level around $3.10.
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart during late-night hours, suggesting bear momentum.
• Volatility expanded during early hours of 2025-09-26, with the price falling as low as $3.0685.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30, but no immediate bullish reversal is evident.
• Notional turnover spiked during the downward leg, indicating heightened bear pressure.

Opening Summary and Market Direction

Sui/Tether (SUIUSDT) opened at $3.2003 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $3.217, dipped as low as $3.0685, and closed at $3.1094 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across 24 hours was approximately 10.6 million SUI, with a notional turnover of around $33.5 million. The price trend appears to have broken key psychological levels, raising bearish implications for the near-term.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a clear bearish bias, with a large bearish engulfing pattern forming during the early morning hours (2025-09-26 00:15–00:30 ET). A doji also formed at $3.1149, signaling indecision near the $3.10 support. A strong bearish breakdown occurred at $3.1068, with price falling below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages. The 15-minute chart shows a descending triangle formation, indicating a potential continuation lower toward $3.05–3.00.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20SMA and 50SMA both trended lower, confirming the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA and 200DMA crossed bearishly in recent sessions, forming a death cross. SUIUSDT closed below both indicators, reinforcing the bearish signal. Traders may watch the 50DMA for potential short-term support or rejections.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative throughout the session, with bearish divergence on the histogram showing sustained downward pressure. RSI fell below 30, entering oversold territory, but without a strong reversal candle, the oversold condition may not trigger a bounce. Momentum appears to be trailing, but not yet exhausted.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sharp drop from $3.15 to $3.0685, with price reaching the lower band. During this period, the bands widened, indicating heightened uncertainty and possible exhaustion in the short-term move. Price has since bounced slightly but remains under pressure near the lower band.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spikes occurred during the bearish breakdown, with the 18:00–19:00 ET session showing a notable increase in bear pressure. Turnover during this period was also elevated, confirming the bearish sentiment. However, a divergence appears between price and volume in the final hour, suggesting a potential short-term pause before further downward movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the 15-minute swing high of $3.217 and the low of $3.0685, Fibonacci levels show key support at 38.2% ($3.139) and 61.8% ($3.098). Price tested the 61.8% level twice, most recently at $3.0985. A close below that may target $3.07–3.05 next. Daily Fibonacci retracements on recent bear waves also align with this range.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and key Fibonacci support levels, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position upon a confirmed close below the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($3.098) with a stop loss placed just above the most recent swing high at $3.150. A target could be set at $3.05, leveraging the descending triangle and bearish MACD divergence. This strategy aligns with the observed volatility expansion and bearish volume patterns, using technical structure to define risk and reward parameters.