Market Overview for SUIJPY: 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-10)

• Price rallied from 502.96 to 531.05 on 24 October, with key resistance at 527.57–530.5 and support at 523.6–526.85.
• Momentum waned mid-day, with RSI and MACD signaling overbought conditions followed by divergence.
• Volatility spiked with a 15-minute high of 531.05, but closing at 502.96 suggests bearish pressure.
• Volume surged to 9862.9 at 15:45 ET but failed to confirm a bullish breakout, hinting at weak follow-through.
• Fibonacci levels at 509.03 (38.2%) and 521.52 (61.8%) appear to be psychological turning points.

The Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) pair opened at 515.6 on 2025-10-09 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 531.05 before closing at 502.96 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 82,926.66, with a turnover of approximately ¥42,833,893.05. A sharp selloff emerged after 15:30 ET, breaking through key support levels and ending near the session’s low.

Structure & Formations

A strong bullish impulsive move from 515.6 to 531.05 was followed by a deep bearish engulfing pattern and a long lower shadow at the 15:30 ET candle (509.03–521.52), suggesting rejection of higher prices. A doji formed near 527.57 at 11:00 ET, indicating indecision. Key support levels include 523.6, 526.85, and 502.32, with 502.96 now acting as a potential near-term floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below its 20-EMA and 50-EMA, signaling bearish momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50- and 100-day MA lines are currently unprovided due to lack of extended data, but the 200-day line likely resides in the 520–530 range. A break below 523.6 could trigger a retest of the 506.73 level.

MACD & RSI

RSI hit overbought territory above 70 during the bullish phase but has since plunged to oversold levels below 30, consistent with the sharp drop from 531.05 to 502.96. MACD lines showed a bearish crossover and a negative histogram during the selloff, confirming the move. The pair may consolidate within the 515.5–528.1 range before resuming a directional move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly from 15:30 to 16:00 ET, as the 15-minute Bollinger Bands widened from 527.57 to 502.32. Price closed outside the lower band at 502.96, reinforcing bearish sentiment. A retest of the upper band at ~528.0 could trigger a countertrend bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 9862.9 at 15:45 ET but failed to support a continuation of the bullish trend, indicating weak conviction. Turnover confirmed the bearish shift, with a large block of volume seen at the 15:45 ET candle (509.03–506.73). Divergence between price and volume may suggest a short-term bottom is near.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 515.6–531.05 move, key retracement levels at 38.2% (524.72), 50% (523.33), and 61.8% (521.52) were all tested or broken during the selloff. A bounce from the 506.73 level may target 512.0–515.6 for a short-term rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position on a close below 523.6 with a stop above the 528.1 resistance and a target at 515.6–512.0. This aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and bearish divergence in RSI and MACD. A long entry could be triggered on a retest of 521.52 with a stop below 518.0 and a target at 527.5–530.5. Given the high volume and volatility, a trailing stop near the 525.0–527.0 zone may improve risk-reward.