Market Overview for SUIJPY on 2025-09-14

• SUIJPY opened at 560.24, peaked at 568.78, dipped to 538.7, and closed at 541.7.
• Price experienced a sharp sell-off after 19:00 ET, followed by a partial rebound.
• Volume spiked during the 20:30–21:30 ET range, but failed to confirm bullish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions in the morning, shifting to bearish divergence later.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during key swings, indicating rising volatility in late trading hours.

Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) opened at 560.24 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 541.7 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 568.78 and a low of 538.7 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 172,628.62, while notional turnover was $93,857,468. The pair exhibited a bearish bias following a sharp breakdown and failed to reclaim key support levels in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The daily session saw a sharp breakdown in early Asian hours, forming a large bearish engulfing pattern from 17:15–17:30 ET (551.39 → 553.84). A second key bearish signal occurred at 01:30–02:30 ET (554.52 → 562.62) with a high-low range of 7.1. A bearish divergence appeared between 05:00–06:00 ET as price declined but volume remained low. The final hour (16:00 ET) closed at a 24-hour high of 541.7, failing to breach the 568.78 peak, suggesting a lack of conviction in the upside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was bearish with price below the line for most of the session. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period at 07:30 ET, confirming bearish momentum. Daily chart indicators showed the 50-period MA at 555.6, 100-period at 558.6, and 200-period at 560.9. Price closed below all three, reinforcing the bearish structure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line at 18:15 ET, with a bearish histogram expanding through 01:00 ET. RSI peaked at 70 in the morning before declining to 28 by 10:00 ET, signaling oversold conditions. However, no meaningful bounce occurred, indicating a possible breakdown of key support.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the 20:30–21:30 ET window as price broke below the lower band, suggesting heightened bearish sentiment. Price remained within the bands for most of the session but approached the upper band during the 20:15–20:45 ET period. The 20-period Bollinger Band width increased from 2.5 to 5.8 during the breakdown phase, indicating rising uncertainty.

Volume & Turnover

Volume reached a peak of 10,175.62 at 14:45 ET, coinciding with a breakdown move from 545.0 to 539.93. However, the closing hour only saw 2,540.36 in volume, indicating weak conviction in the rally. Notional turnover was highest during the 16:00–17:00 ET range with $4.7M traded. Price-volume divergence was observed from 06:00–08:00 ET, where price dropped but volume did not confirm the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key retracement levels for the 560.24–568.78 leg were 564.0 (38.2%), 561.0 (50%), and 557.5 (61.8%). Price stalled at the 61.8% level during the 09:30–10:30 ET window before breaking down again. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the 568.78–538.7 leg is at 551.3, where price tested twice but failed to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

The breakdown and failed test of key Fibonacci and support levels suggest a potential shorting opportunity on a retest of the 551.3–555.6 range. A possible entry would be on a close below 551.3 with a stop just above 557.5 (50% retracement). A trailing stop at 541.7 could capture continued bearish momentum. The backtesting strategy should focus on confirming divergence in RSI and MACD before entering a short position, with volume acting as a secondary confirmation filter.