Market Overview for Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) – September 22, 2025

• SUIJPY fell sharply from 539.85 to 498.1 amid high-volume bearish moves, with oversold RSI suggesting a potential bounce.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with price reaching 528.08 before collapsing, suggesting heightened uncertainty in the pair.
• A bullish divergence in RSI emerged late in the session, hinting at possible short-term countertrend buying pressure.
• Price tested key support at 498.0–497.0, where multiple retracement levels aligned, potentially setting a floor.
• 24-hour turnover surged due to heavy volume during the 06:15–08:15 ET window, suggesting increased market attention.

SUIJPY opened at 538.58 at 12:00 ET-1 on September 21, 2025, and fell sharply to a 24-hour low of 493.8 before closing at 498.43 at 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume amounted to 192,000.66, while notional turnover reached approximately 96.94 million Yen, driven by heavy selling in the early morning ET window.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a clear bearish trend from 539.85, with notable 15-minute bearish engulfing patterns forming at key inflection points such as the 06:15 ET-1 (526.08 to 522.87), 06:30 ET-1 (522.47 to 520.6), and 07:30 ET-1 (500.08 to 499.11). A long-legged doji appeared at 03:45 ET-1 (521.04), indicating indecision. Strong support levels emerged at 498.0–497.0, with 503.84 and 501.14 marking recent resistance levels. A potential bullish reversal pattern is forming near 497.0 as price consolidates at these levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (20SMA/50SMA) are both bearish and acting as dynamic resistance, with price failing to hold above both. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day MA lines show a stronger bearish bias, with price well below all three. The MA crossover structure remains intact for bearish continuation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early session, confirming bearish momentum. However, RSI has dipped into oversold territory (around 29) after the sharp decline to 493.8, suggesting a potential short-term bounce could occur. A bullish divergence appears in RSI late in the session, with price making a new low but RSI not confirming it — a possible sign of buying interest emerging.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the early morning, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow contraction at 02:15 ET-1. Price traded at the lower band during the 06:30–08:00 ET-1 window, indicating oversold conditions. The bands have since tightened slightly in the afternoon, suggesting a potential consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply from 06:15 to 08:15 ET-1, with the largest 15-minute volume spike at 06:15 ET-1 (31,229.19) as price collapsed from 509.13 to 498.1. Turnover increased in lockstep with volume, particularly during this bearish breakdown. No significant price-turnover divergences were observed; however, the late-session volume dip suggests reduced conviction in the current bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, key retracement levels at 503.84 (38.2%), 501.14 (50%), and 497.76 (61.8%) have been tested and held. Price appears to have found support at the 61.8% level (497.76–497.0), potentially setting up for a short-term bounce. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent 540–509.13 move is at 514.56, which could become resistance if the recovery gains strength.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could leverage the observed RSI divergence and support zone at 498.0–497.0 as a buy signal, with a stop-loss below 496.0 and a take-profit target at 501.14. The strategy would focus on capturing countertrend bounces during high-volume pullbacks, using the 20SMA as a dynamic filter to ensure the move is not a bearish continuation. Given the current structure and MACD/RSI alignment, this approach could be backtested on the 15-minute timeframe with the 50-period MA as a trend filter. The results could validate the short-term reversal potential in SUIJPY, especially in high-volume environments.