Market Overview for Sui/Yen (SUIJPY): September 13, 2025

• Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) rallied from 536.1 to 567.0 in 24 hours, posting a strong upward bias.
• Price found support near 536.1 and surged through prior resistance at 547.77, 553.15, and 563.67.
• Volatility spiked significantly from 00:00–02:00 ET, with volume peaking near 553.15–558.19.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions near 567.0, while MACD shows strong bullish momentum.
• Recent high-volume pullbacks around 559.2–560.29 suggest short-term profit-taking may follow.

Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) opened at 536.1 on September 12 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 567.0 by 12:00 ET on September 13. The pair closed at 559.02, having traded between 536.1 and 567.0 over 24 hours. Total 15-minute candle volume summed to 263,786.02 units, with a notional turnover of $148,774,212.80 (assuming 1 Yen = $0.0092 as of this writing).

Structure & Formations

SUIJPY formed a bullish continuation pattern on the 15-minute chart, with a strong breakout from a multi-hour consolidation at 553.15–558.19. A strong green engulfing candle at 08:30–08:45 ET confirmed the upside bias. Key support levels to watch include 554.3 (a previous high), 548.23, and 545.2 (a key pivot). Resistance is now at 567.0–569.69, with potential for a test of the psychological 570.0 level.

Doji and Reversal Clues

A long-legged doji emerged at 05:45–06:00 ET, indicating hesitation after a sharp rally. This may signal a short-term pause. A morning star pattern also formed around 01:00–02:00 ET, reinforcing the bullish bias. However, a bearish reversal could materialize if price fails to hold above 554.3 in the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

The 15-minute chart shows price above both 20-period and 50-period moving averages, with the 50-period line rising steeply. On the daily chart, SUIJPY is above the 50-day MA, which is itself above the 100-day and 200-day MAs, reinforcing a long-term bullish trend.

MACD remains strongly positive, with a large histogram and bullish crossover above the signal line. RSI hit overbought territory (85–90) near the 563.67 and 567.0 highs, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation phase ahead. However, as long as RSI stays above 50 and MACD remains above zero, the uptrend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly between 00:00 and 02:00 ET, as price moved from 549.8 to 555.77, with the Bollinger Bands widening by over 3%. Price closed near the upper band at 555.77, suggesting a potential reversal or continuation is still in play. A retest of the lower band near 549.2 may occur, but a strong close above 559.0 could push price toward 563.0 and beyond.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked during key breakout periods, particularly from 00:00–02:00 ET and 08:30–09:00 ET. Notional turnover also surged during these hours, confirming price action. However, a divergence appears between price and volume after 14:00 ET, as price pulled back from 571.47 to 560.03 while volume remained elevated. This may indicate increased profit-taking or short-term profit realization.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 536.1–567.0 swing, key levels are:- 23.6% (553.5)- 38.2% (555.0)- 50% (551.6)- 61.8% (549.3)

Price has held well above the 50% and 61.8% levels, suggesting strong conviction in the rally. A break below 551.6 may invite further profit-taking, while a retest of 555.0 could offer a strategic entry point for longs.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined focuses on a long-biased, trend-following setup using the 20-period and 50-period moving averages as entry confirmation. Crossovers of these MAs on the 15-minute chart, particularly during periods of high volume and rising RSI (above 50), would have triggered a buy signal. Stops are placed below the most recent swing low, while targets align with the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the previous leg.

This approach appears well-suited for SUIJPY’s recent behavior, as the 20/50 crossover remained bullish throughout the 24-hour window and was confirmed by rising volume and momentum. A similar strategy may be backtested using daily candles for a longer-term play, with stops placed under the 50-day MA and targets aligned with key Fibonacci levels derived from the 536.1–567.0 move.

A possible refinement would involve integrating RSI divergence to filter out false breakouts or reduce risk during overbought conditions. This could help prevent entering long positions near tops, as seen in the 08:30–09:00 ET rally.