Market Overview for Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) – October 14, 2025

• SUIJPY closed lower by 4.6% at 429.00, after a volatile 24-hour session marked by sharp intraday swings and heavy volume.• Momentum indicators signaled mixed conditions, with RSI near overbought levels during late ET rally, followed by bearish divergence.• Bollinger Bands showed increased volatility overnight, with price hovering near the upper band during the Asian and European sessions.• A key resistance level appears at 453.50, where price failed to retest in the last 24 hours; 435.50 supports further downside.• The 15-minute volume spiked above 40,000 near 02:30–03:00 ET, while the largest notional turnover occurred around the 05:15–06:00 ET window.

Price Action and Structure

SUIJPY opened at 435.50 on October 13 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 453.10 before entering a consolidation phase. The pair then declined sharply overnight, breaking below key intraday support levels and closing at 429.00 on October 14 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period reached 620,248.86, with a notional turnover of approximately USD 271 million, reflecting a highly active session. The price pattern resembles a bearish broadening top, especially during the late ET–early ET hours, with a failed attempt to reclaim 453.50.

Trend and Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover during the Asian session, reinforcing the downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period and 200-period MA, signaling a potential medium-term bearish shift. The current price of 429.00 is below all three moving averages, suggesting that the market remains in a corrective phase, and a retest of the 400–410 range may be in play if the trend continues.

Momentum and Volatility

The RSI reached overbought territory around 450–453.50 during the late ET rally but failed to hold above 60, indicating bearish divergence. MACD showed a negative crossover during the early ET decline and remained in bearish territory. Bollinger Bands expanded during the Asian and European hours, with price frequently touching or breaking the upper and lower bands. This suggests heightened volatility and potential for range-bound or breakout moves, depending on the next key resistance or support level.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked significantly during the 02:30–03:00 ET window, with a large candle closing near the low of 435.10, followed by a sharp rally. This could indicate accumulation or a reversal attempt. The largest notional turnover occurred between 05:15–06:00 ET, coinciding with a consolidation phase around 430–435. However, price failed to break above 437.0–439.0 during this time, suggesting a potential exhaustion in the bullish momentum. A divergence between volume and price action emerged during the last two hours of the session, hinting at possible bearish continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 435.10–453.50 swing show key levels at 446.35 (38.2%) and 442.95 (61.8%). Price briefly tested 446.35 during the European session but failed to hold. The 61.8% retracement level of 442.95 appears to be the next critical support, with a breakdown below 435.50 likely to accelerate the decline toward 420–425. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the previous 400–450 range sits at 434.5, aligning with the lower end of the recent consolidation range.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of bullish engulfing patterns during key intraday reversal points—particularly around the 02:30–03:00 ET candle—this could form the basis of a backtesting strategy. A potential approach would involve entering long positions on confirmation of a bullish engulfing candle with strong volume and a retest of the 435.10–437.0 range. The strategy would aim to capture short-term rebounds amid a broader bearish context. For SUIJPY, the ideal setup would occur below 435.10, with a stop-loss placed below the 434.5–433.5 zone and a target at the 440–442.5 range.