Market Overview: Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) Daily Price Action and Momentum

• SUIJPY climbed from 485.47 to 509.93 before retracting to 497.33, showing strong upward momentum and consolidation.
• The RSI surged into overbought territory early before pulling back, suggesting a potential pause in the rally.
• Volume spiked sharply after 07:15 ET, coinciding with a breakout above key resistance, signaling robust buying pressure.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning session, reflecting heightened volatility and aggressive price movement.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 03:15 ET, confirming a short-term reversal after a downward correction.

Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) opened at 485.47 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached an intraday high of 509.93 before closing at 497.33 as of 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 79,143.04, with turnover totaling 39,270,172.24 JPY. Price action was marked by a sharp late-night rally and a volatile afternoon pullback.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a strong bullish bias with price forming a clear ascending triangle between 485.47 (support) and 509.93 (resistance). A bullish engulfing candle at 03:15 ET confirmed a short-term reversal after a downward correction. Key support levels include 497.33, 493.06, and 488.75, with 503.34 and 507.17 forming the primary resistance cluster. A long lower shadow at 14:15 ET hinted at bearish indecision as the pair retreated from its highs.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20-EMA was above the 50-EMA for most of the session, showing strong near-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 200-SMA was crossed above at 07:15 ET, confirming a structural shift into a bullish trend. The 100-SMA and 200-SMA crossed at 496.51, forming a potential bullish crossover in early morning trading.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive at 03:00 ET and remained above the signal line for most of the session, indicating sustained bullish momentum. The RSI peaked at 72 at 04:00 ET, entering overbought territory, but failed to trigger a bearish reversal, suggesting continued buying interest. The RSI later pulled back to 63, hinting at a possible consolidation phase ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning hours, reflecting heightened volatility and aggressive price movement. Price closed near the middle band, suggesting a potential continuation or sideways consolidation after a sharp rally. A tightening of the bands was observed between 09:00 and 11:00 ET, indicating a possible low-volatility pause before the next breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged sharply after 07:15 ET, coinciding with a breakout above key resistance at 503.34, signaling strong institutional buying. The highest volume spike occurred at 07:15–07:30 ET, with over 3226.56 units traded. Turnover spiked alongside this volume, confirming the strength of the move. A divergence between price and volume was observed between 14:15–14:30 ET, where volume fell despite a sharp price drop, signaling potential exhaustion in bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were key in defining the bounce from 488.75 to 509.93. The 61.8% level at 502.33 acted as a temporary resistance, which was broken decisively after 07:15 ET. The 38.2% retracement at 495.88 became a critical support during the afternoon pullback. On the daily chart, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 497.00 appears to be a potential support for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bullish pattern and high volume breakout confirmed by the MACD and RSI, a potential backtest hypothesis could focus on a long entry strategy on a breakout above the 503.34–507.17 resistance cluster, with a stop-loss just below 497.33 and a target aligned with the 78.6% Fibonacci extension at 518.65. This would leverage the ascending triangle breakout and the strong 20/50 EMA divergence. The strategy could be tested on a 15-minute chart with a trailing stop and risk management of 1–2% per trade to account for volatile swings.