Market Overview for Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) – 2025-09-20

• SUIJPY traded in a volatile range today, forming a key 543.2–545.93 consolidation channel.
• Momentum shifted toward bullish bias in the final hours of the session, closing near the high.
• High-volume bearish breakdowns early were followed by sharp volume-driven bounces.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the last 6 hours, with price breaching upper Bollinger levels.
• RSI showed overbought conditions, but price momentum did not diverge from the trend.

The Sui/Yen (SUIJPY) pair opened at 543.7 on September 19 and closed at 540.55 on September 20. The 24-hour range was 544.97 (high) to 535.8 (low), with a final close of 540.55. Total volume was 195,166.09 units traded, and notional turnover reached 105,045,268.96 Yen during the period. The market exhibited strong intraday volatility, with a bearish early morning trend followed by a late recovery.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged at 540.5 and 536.0, with a critical test at 535.8. A notable bearish breakdown occurred at 536.0, where a large-volume candle formed a shooting star pattern. Later in the session, a strong bullish reversal candle appeared at 540.38–541.66, confirming short-term buyer participation. A doji formed near 543.23, signaling indecision. Resistance levels held at 545.93, 547.89, and 548.68, with price failing to hold above these in the final 15-minute intervals.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed multiple times, indicating a choppy but ultimately bullish trend. The 50-period line was breached by the 20-period line late in the session, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move. On a daily basis, the price remained above the 50-period MA, showing a moderate bullish bias, though it dipped slightly below the 200-period MA during the morning low.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bullish in the last 4 hours of the session, with a strong positive histogram confirming the recent strength. RSI reached overbought territory near 70 in the final 2 hours, but price action did not show divergence, suggesting that the bulls remain in control. However, a pullback into the 61.8% Fibonacci level could trigger a short-term correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly in the final 6 hours, with Bollinger Bands expanding and price touching the upper band in the 6:00–6:30 ET window. Price remained within the bands for most of the session, indicating that the move remained within a defined range. A break above 548.68 or below 535.8 could signal a breakout or breakdown in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked multiple times during the session, particularly at key reversal points such as the 536.0 and 540.38 levels. Notional turnover mirrored the volume spikes, confirming price movements. The largest volume bar (7,537.02 Yen) occurred near the 540.38 level, indicating strong buying pressure at that level. Divergences were not observed between volume and price in the final hour, suggesting strong conviction in the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing low (535.8) and high (548.68), key levels at 545.13 (38.2%) and 542.86 (61.8%) were tested in the final hours. The 61.8% level acted as a pivot for a bullish bounce. A close below this level could extend the bearish leg toward the 539.0–537.7 range. On the 15-minute chart, retracements at 541.0 and 544.3 were key areas of consolidation and breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy emphasizes entering long positions on a bullish breakout of the 61.8% Fibonacci level (542.86) with a stop-loss placed below 540.38 and a take-profit at 545.93. Additionally, short positions are triggered on a breakdown of the 536.0 level, with a stop above 540.55 and a target at 535.8. The data from today’s session supports the strategy, as key Fibonacci levels were tested with corresponding volume confirmation. This approach appears to align well with the observed structure and momentum shifts.