Market Overview for Sui/Tether (SUIUSDT)

• SUI/USDT traded lower over 24 hours, closing near intraday lows after a bearish reversal pattern.
• Volatility increased mid-day before stabilizing, with volume confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI showed oversold conditions late, while MACD signaled potential for short-term consolidation.
• Key support identified at $2.35–2.36, resistance retested at $2.38–2.39, with potential for a breakout or breakdown.
• Turnover remained consistent, with no divergence between price and volume suggesting valid trend continuation.

The Sui/Tether (SUIUSDT) pair opened at $2.3709 on 2025-10-31 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $2.3961, and a low of $2.3083, closing at $2.3813 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 13,880,687.5, with a total turnover of $33,080,486.52.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish reversal pattern on October 31, with a sharp decline from $2.3398 to $2.3112 over a 45-minute window. This was followed by a consolidation phase, with price finding support between $2.35 and $2.36 by early November 1. A potential bullish engulfing pattern appeared around 17:45 ET on October 31, while a doji near $2.3590 hinted at indecision. The key support level at $2.3584 and resistance at $2.3851 were tested multiple times, suggesting the pair may find its next directional bias within this range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average was below the 50-period line during much of the session, indicating bearish momentum. The daily chart showed the 50-period MA crossing below the 100-period and 200-period lines, reinforcing a bearish trend. Price was below both the 20-period and 50-period MAs, suggesting further downside could be in play unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish divergence with a declining histogram and a negative crossover, confirming the downward pressure. RSI dipped into oversold territory after the sharp drop, reaching as low as 28.5, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the slow momentum shift and prolonged bearish pressure suggest any recovery may be limited unless a bullish catalyst emerges.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the early part of the session, with price hitting the lower band before stabilizing. By mid-session, volatility began to contract, with price hovering near the middle band. This suggests a potential consolidation phase ahead, with traders likely watching the 20-period Bollinger Band for signs of a breakout or breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained consistent throughout the 24-hour period, with no significant spikes indicating strong order flow. Notional turnover also followed a relatively flat trend, with no divergence between price and volume, suggesting that the bearish move was broadly supported by market participants. The largest single 15-minute volume spike occurred at 19:45 ET on October 31, where over 730,000 SUI changed hands as the pair dropped below $2.35.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $2.3083 to $2.3961, the 61.8% retrace level was at $2.3632, which coincided with a minor consolidation area. The 38.2% level at $2.3797 was also tested but not broken. For the daily chart, a major retracement from the recent high at $2.4000 (approx.) to the low at $2.3083 placed key levels at $2.3613 (61.8%) and $2.3840 (38.2%), both of which were touched during the session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed bearish trend and technical setup align with the backtested strategy's behavior, which emphasized short-term mean reversion and trend-following signals using MACD. The backtest results showed a total return of +14.99% from 2022–01–01 to 2025–11–01, with an annualized return of 9.15%. However, the strategy's drawdowns, peaking at −34.59%, suggest that while the edge exists in directional trading, volatility remains a concern. A Sharpe ratio of 0.28 indicates weak risk-adjusted performance, highlighting the need for tighter risk controls—such as fixed stop-loss and take-profit levels—to improve robustness. This aligns with the current price behavior, where a disciplined exit strategy would be essential to capture gains from the bearish momentum without being overexposed to sudden reversals.