Market Overview for Sui/Tether (SUIUSDT) on 2025-10-03

• SUIUSDT rallied from $3.5143 to $3.6435, with a consolidation back to $3.5752, showing strong intraday bullish momentum.
• RSI reached overbought levels twice, indicating potential exhaustion in buying pressure.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the initial rally, followed by a gradual contraction as the price consolidated.
• A bearish divergence appeared on RSI during the pullback, suggesting potential for further downside.
• Volume spiked during the rally but declined during consolidation, hinting at potential waning bullish conviction.

15-Minute Candlestick Summary

SUIUSDT opened at $3.5143 on 2025-10-02 at 16:00 ET and closed at $3.5774 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. The pair surged to a high of $3.6435 during the session before retracting sharply, settling at a 24-hour low of $3.5256. The total volume for the period was approximately 11,890,812.5 units, with a notional turnover of $41,253,561.1 (calculated from the volume × average close price). Price action displayed a strong initial bullish implosion followed by a broad correction, suggesting a mixed sentiment among market participants.

Structure & Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, SUIUSDT broke above a key 20-period and 50-period moving average, reaching over $3.63. However, it failed to hold this level and has since been retracing toward the 50-period MA, which currently sits at approximately $3.598. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be near $3.56, with the 200-period MA near $3.49, suggesting the asset is currently in a short-term bullish phase but still below longer-term support. The structure of the rally included a strong bullish engulfing pattern at the beginning of the session, which was followed by a bearish dark cloud cover and a potential inside bar formation, indicating uncertainty in the market.

MACD, RSI, and Momentum

The MACD line on the 15-minute chart showed a strong bullish crossover during the initial rally, but it has since flattened as the price corrected. RSI reached an overbought level of 75, which was followed by a sharp sell-off. A bearish divergence formed on RSI, with the indicator making a lower high while the price was still attempting to retest earlier highs, signaling potential further downward pressure. Momentum appears to have shifted from strong bullish to cautious bearish, with traders showing more hesitation to push prices higher.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands widened during the initial rally, with the price pushing well above the upper band. This suggests a period of high volatility. However, during the subsequent pullback, the bands have begun to contract, with the price now sitting just below the upper band. This pattern of expansion and contraction is typical of a consolidation phase following a sharp move. If the price continues to fall within the bands, it may indicate a return to a more balanced volatility regime.

Volume & Turnover Analysis

Volume surged during the initial rally, particularly in the hour leading up to the high of $3.6435, with a sharp increase in notional turnover. However, as the price pulled back, volume declined, suggesting reduced conviction among bullish participants. A divergence between the price action and volume during the consolidation phase may indicate that the market is losing steam. The total notional turnover for the day was $41,253,561.1, with a peak of $3.5779 during the consolidation phase. This divergence between price and turnover raises the possibility of a short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the 15-minute swing (from $3.5143 to $3.6435) show the price has retested the 61.8% retracement level at approximately $3.58. It appears to be finding resistance there and may test the 38.2% level at $3.61 in the near term. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level is near $3.56, which could provide key support if the correction continues. These levels could act as potential pivot points for traders looking to gauge short-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy would focus on the combination of RSI divergence, Fibonacci retracement levels, and MACD signals. A sell entry could be triggered upon a bearish RSI divergence and a price retest of the 61.8% Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss above the 50-period moving average. Given the recent price action, a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio would target a price of $3.53 with a stop at $3.59. This strategy aligns with the observed overbought RSI and the bearish momentum shift, offering a probabilistic edge in the current market context.