Market Overview for Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY): 24-Hour Technical Summary

• XLMJPY declined from 50.37 to 49.16 before a late recovery to 51.82, driven by heavy volume in the final 45-minute window.
• Volatility expanded significantly with a 2.3% move in the final hour, while RSI signaled overbought conditions at 51.82.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near 51.13, confirming a reversal after an early bearish trend.
• Turnover surged at 51.82, with 2,002.0 volume, confirming strength in the key resistance level.
• Price remains below the 20-period EMA, though the 50-period line offers potential short-term support.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11, XLMJPY opened at 50.08 and traded as high as 51.82 before closing at 51.75 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-12. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 193,474.8, and total notional turnover was 9,506,491.6 (JPY).

The 24-hour period for XLMJPY showed a complex price journey. Starting from 50.08, the pair dipped sharply to 47.16 before rallying back to 49.4 and continuing to 51.82. A key bearish candle formed at 49.14, opening at 49.16 and closing at 48.99, with volume at 4,359.0. This was followed by a strong bullish reversal at 51.13, where a bullish engulfing pattern formed after a bearish downswing. The price closed near the upper end of the Bollinger Band in the final hour, suggesting a period of high volatility and increased buying pressure.

MACD showed a positive crossover in the last 2 hours, with the line above the signal line and the histogram expanding. RSI reached overbought levels at 75 during the 1530-1545 ET timeframe and briefly above 80 near the close, signaling potential exhaustion. The 20-period EMA was below the current price, while the 50-period line offered a potential support zone around 49.4-49.5. Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the last 3 hours, with the closing candle touching the upper band, suggesting a continuation may be due but with a risk of retesting the 50.50 level.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 47.16-51.82 swing identified key levels. The 61.8% retracement at approximately 49.40 aligned with a minor support zone seen in volume data. The 38.2% retracement at 50.60 acted as a resistance during the late morning, with price failing to break past it before a final push. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA at 48.67 and the 200-day MA at 47.85 appear as potential reentry points for long-term buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest strategy based on the 20-period EMA and RSI could yield insights into XLMJPY's short-term behavior. Entering long positions when RSI dips below 30 and the price crosses above the 20-period EMA, with an exit when RSI exceeds 70 or a bearish engulfing candle forms, could capture some of the recent rebounds. Given the recent volatility and overbought RSI, this strategy may face whipsaw risk in the next 24 hours if the market retraces. However, the confirmation of the bullish engulfing pattern and volume at key levels suggest it may be worth backtesting with a risk cap of 2-3% per trade.