Market Overview for Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-20)

• XLMJPY traded in a volatile range today, with a low of ¥57.3 and a high of ¥58.45.

• Price closed near the 61.8% Fibonacci level after a sharp rally in the morning.

• MACD and RSI showed mixed signals, with RSI reaching overbought territory in the morning.

• Volume surged in the early part of the day, followed by a sharp price reversal in the afternoon.

• Bollinger Bands indicated a period of contraction in the morning before an expansion phase.

24-Hour Snapshot

Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) opened at ¥57.35 on September 19 at 12:00 ET and traded to a high of ¥58.45 and a low of ¥57.25 before closing at ¥57.88 at 12:00 ET on September 20. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 167,832.0 XLM, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥9,594,023. The pair showed a strong rebound from a morning dip, particularly between 02:00 and 06:30 ET, where it rose over 700 basis points from ¥57.25 to ¥58.10.

Structure and Formations

The price action showed several key reversals and continuation patterns. A bullish engulfing pattern formed between 06:00 and 06:15 ET, where the close surged from ¥58.05 to ¥58.08. This was followed by a strong three-wave rally, forming a potential rising wedge. A key support level emerged around ¥57.55–57.60, where the price rebounded multiple times during the early and late parts of the day. On the bearish side, ¥57.25–57.30 acted as a temporary floor during the morning consolidation phase. A doji formed at 07:15 ET, suggesting indecision after the morning rally. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 09:00 ET as the price reversed sharply from ¥58.10 to ¥57.82, indicating short-term exhaustion in the bullish momentum.

Moving Averages and Momentum

A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover around 06:30 ET, reinforcing the morning rally. The 50-period line crossed above the 20-period line, providing a potential entry signal for long positions. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average was above the 100-period and 200-period lines, indicating a longer-term bullish bias. The RSI reached overbought levels (70+) during the morning rally, peaking at 72.5 around 06:45 ET, suggesting the possibility of a pullback. The MACD (12, 26, 9) crossed above the signal line around 06:30 ET and remained positive for most of the day, showing sustained bullish momentum until 09:30 ET.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction in the early hours, with the price trading within a narrow range of ¥57.35–57.50 between 01:00 and 04:00 ET. This was followed by a significant expansion in volatility after 06:00 ET, as the price broke out of the upper band. By 06:45 ET, the price had reached the outer edge of the bands at ¥58.13. The bands then narrowed again in the afternoon as the price consolidated, indicating a potential shift in volatility. The price remained within the bands for most of the day, suggesting no extreme overbought or oversold conditions.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged between 02:15 and 06:30 ET, with the largest 15-minute volume spike occurring at 02:15 ET (12,537.2 XLM) and again at 06:30 ET (9,415.0 XLM), coinciding with the morning rally. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with the most significant increase occurring in the early morning and late morning hours. A divergence appeared between price and volume in the afternoon, where volume declined but the price continued to move sideways, suggesting a potential bearish signal. This divergence became more apparent between 10:00 and 12:00 ET, where the price moved lower but volume remained subdued.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

The Fibonacci retracement levels were calculated based on the morning rally from ¥57.25 to ¥58.10. The 38.2% retracement level was around ¥57.70, and the 61.8% level was at ¥57.55. The price closed near the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. On the daily chart, the key Fibonacci levels from the prior week’s high and low indicated support at ¥57.40 and resistance at ¥58.25. The price’s ability to hold above ¥57.55 in the afternoon suggested a potential continuation of the bullish trend, but further consolidation may be needed for a breakout.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on a 20/50 EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart could have captured the morning rally. A long entry at the EMA crossover point around 06:30 ET would have aligned with the bullish breakout. A stop-loss could be placed below ¥57.60, and a target could be set at the 50% Fibonacci level (¥57.80) and the 61.8% level (¥57.55). Given the volume and momentum readings, the strategy may have yielded a profit of approximately 250–400 basis points, depending on the entry and exit points. However, the afternoon divergence and the bearish engulfing pattern at 09:00 ET suggest caution, indicating the need for a trailing stop or a reevaluation of the position.