Market Overview for Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) on 2025-10-29

• Price closed slightly higher at 49.32, up from the 12:00 ET open of 49.68, with a 24-hour high of 50.0 and a low of 48.14
• Volatility expanded during early hours, with a large bearish candle on 19:30 ET and a key rally forming late morning
• RSI hit oversold levels near 48.28 before recovering, suggesting potential buying interest at recent lows
• Volume spiked sharply at 19:30 ET and again at 02:30 ET, aligning with major price swings
• Bollinger Bands show price has retested the lower band multiple times, indicating potential consolidation ahead

The Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY) pair opened at 49.68 on 2025-10-29 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 49.32 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached 50.0 while the low dropped to 48.14. Total volume amounted to 687,063.0 units, with a notional turnover of 33,003,922.00 JPY. The price action revealed a complex intraday reversal pattern, with bearish momentum shifting to a tentative rally late in the session.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a key bearish engulfing candle at 19:30 ET, opening at 49.78 and closing at 49.37—a sharp 41-tick decline. This was followed by a bullish reversal forming from 22:00 ET onward, culminating in a strong 02:30 ET candle that opened at 48.06 and closed at 48.54. Support levels appear to have formed around the 48.36–48.50 range, with resistance at 49.0 and 49.33. A potential bullish harami formed at 09:15 ET, suggesting caution for further bearish moves.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs crossed multiple times, with the 20 EMA dipping below the 50 EMA during the bearish phase, signaling a temporary bearish bias. By the end of the session, the 20 EMA had reascended, hinting at a possible reversal. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200 EMA lines were closely aligned, suggesting the pair remains in a neutral consolidation phase with no clear long-term bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish during the 19:30–22:00 ET period, with a bearish crossover and negative momentum. However, a positive divergence formed in the final hours of the session as the histogram turned upward. RSI dropped into oversold territory at 48.28 before rebounding, indicating potential short-term buying interest. A moderate overbought condition was seen around 49.78 during the mid-session bearish move.

Bollinger Bands

Price action exhibited a clear volatility expansion in the early hours, with price moving outside the lower band at 19:30 ET. A subsequent contraction followed until late morning, when price retested the lower band multiple times between 02:00–06:00 ET. By midday, price settled within the bands, indicating a return to more normalized volatility levels. The 20-period Bollinger Bands remained relatively stable, with no signs of a breakout forming.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 19:30 ET bearish candle (26,884.6) and again at 02:30 ET (26,920.0), confirming the bearish and bullish moves, respectively. Notional turnover mirrored this, with the largest turnover occurring between 19:30–20:45 ET. A divergence occurred between 09:15–10:00 ET where price moved higher but volume remained low, suggesting limited conviction behind the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key 15-minute retracement levels were tested during the session, with price finding support at the 61.8% level (48.54) and resistance at the 38.2% level (48.94) after the 19:30 ET drop. On the daily chart, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline was near 48.78, which coincided with a bounce observed around 03:00–04:00 ET.

Backtest Hypothesis

The attempted backtesting for the “Bullish Engulfing” pattern on XLMJPY encountered technical issues, likely due to the symbol being either catalogued differently or not available in USD/JPY format. A logical workaround would be to use XLMUSD for pattern recognition, as USD data is more readily available. Alternatively, a synthetic XLMJPY series could be constructed using XLMUSD and USDJPY cross-rate data. Both approaches allow for a viable path forward in testing candlestick strategies. This reinforces the need for standardized symbol usage and cross-rate calculations in multi-currency crypto pairs.