Market Overview for Stellar/Yen (XLMJPY): 2025-09-14

• XLMJPY fell 7.9% over 24 hours, breaking key support at ¥59.70 with bearish momentum intensifying.
• Volatility expanded as price dropped from ¥60.01 to ¥57.19, with RSI entering oversold territory and MACD diverging.
• Heavy volume observed in early morning ET, but price continued lower, signaling weak conviction in the short-term rally.
• A key 50-period 15-min MA turned bearish, while the 200-period daily MA remains above price, suggesting medium-term uncertainty.
• Price consolidation near ¥57.19 raises possibility of a short-term bounce, but longer-term risks remain with major support at ¥56.80.

At 12:00 ET-1, XLMJPY opened at ¥60.13, reached a high of ¥60.44, and closed at ¥57.19 as of 12:00 ET. The pair fell 7.9%, with total volume of 345,429.7 and turnover of ¥19,783,877.5 over 24 hours. The price has clearly broken below key support levels and is now testing lower ranges, indicating heightened bearish pressure.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period displayed a sharp breakdown from ¥60.01 to ¥57.19, with a large bearish engulfing pattern forming at the start of the downturn. A key support level was breached at ¥59.70, followed by a failed attempt to rally above ¥59.40. A doji appeared near ¥58.90, signaling indecision and a potential reversal point. The price has now stabilized near ¥57.19, forming a possible short-term support zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, confirming a bearish bias in short-term momentum. The daily 50-period MA remains above current levels, but the 200-period MA at ¥58.90 now serves as a critical psychological level. If the price continues to fall below this, it could signal a broader downtrend in the medium term. A cross above the 50-period MA would be necessary to reestablish bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD indicator showed a clear bearish divergence with price, as the line and histogram moved lower while price briefly tried to rally. The RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30) and remains there, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, as long as the MACD remains below its signal line, bearish pressure is likely to persist. A breakout above the 50-level on RSI would be a positive sign for buyers.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded significantly, with the upper band at ¥60.20 and the lower band at ¥57.50. The current price of ¥57.19 is sitting well below the 20-period lower Bollinger Band, indicating extreme bearish pressure. A retracement toward the mid-Bollinger Band at ¥58.85 could occur in the short term, but a sustained move back above the upper band would require a major bullish reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning hours (ET) as the price moved from ¥59.0 to ¥58.25, confirming the bearish breakdown. However, a divergence occurred after the mid-day ET period, as volume declined even with continued price falls. This suggests that selling pressure may be waning. Turnover has decreased slightly in the last 6 hours, but overall turnover remains elevated, showing active participation from traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent 15-minute high of ¥60.44 to the low of ¥57.19 indicate critical levels to watch. The 23.6% retracement is at ¥59.15, the 38.2% at ¥58.66, and the 61.8% at ¥57.86. A move back to the 38.2% level could provide a short-term bounce, but a break below ¥57.19 would extend the correction to the 78.6% level near ¥56.80. These levels will be key in determining near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration relies on a combination of RSI and MACD divergence signals to identify potential reversal points in a downtrend. Specifically, it triggers a long position when RSI enters oversold territory (below 30) and MACD shows a bullish crossover. Given the current RSI in oversold conditions and the MACD divergence observed, a short-term bounce may be in the cards. However, given the broader bearish structure and key support being tested, it is important to use tight stop-loss levels and to view this strategy as a short-term countertrend approach rather than a reversal signal. The 15-minute chart would be the most appropriate timeframe for this strategy to be implemented, with exits either on a MACD bearish crossover or a move below the 20-period MA.