Market Overview for Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) – 2025-10-01

• Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) climbed 0.3595 to 0.3887 before consolidating around 0.388.
• Price showed strong bullish momentum during midday with a 0.383–0.3887 surge.
• Increased volume during breakout confirmed the move, with turnover surging past 11 million.
• A bearish reversal pattern emerged in late afternoon, hinting at short-term uncertainty.
• Volatility remained elevated, with Bollinger Bands widening after the breakout attempt.

At 12:00 ET – 1, Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) opened at 0.3595 and reached a high of 0.3887, closing at 0.388. The pair traded between 0.3578 and 0.3887, with a total volume of 75,375,593.38 and a notional turnover of 26.96 million USDT.

The 15-minute chart shows a clear bullish move beginning at 08:45 ET with a strong bullish engulfing pattern as price surged from 0.3687 to 0.3764. This was followed by a sharp continuation higher to 0.3887 by 09:30 ET, confirming the bullish bias. However, a bearish reversal began to form at the peak with a doji and a lower close in the last 15-minute candle of the session.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels formed near 0.3687 and 0.3887, with a strong support zone around 0.365–0.367. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed at 08:45 ET, suggesting a breakout was in the works. The doji at 15:45 ET and the following lower close hinted at exhaustion and potential pullback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA moved upward from 0.373 to 0.382, while the 50-period MA followed closely, indicating a strong trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 100-period MA, reinforcing the bullish case.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned positive and expanded through the morning, with the line crossing above the signal line at 08:45 ET. RSI surged to 68 by midday, then peaked near 71 at 15:45 ET before declining. This suggests overbought conditions formed at the top, increasing the chance of a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened during the breakout phase, with price pushing above the upper band at 09:00 ET. By 15:45 ET, price was trading near the upper band again, which may increase the likelihood of a pullback toward the midline in the short term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout from 0.3687 to 0.3764, with a 15-minute turnover of 3.69 million USDT. The largest volume occurred at 08:45 ET (3.69 million USDT) and 15:45 ET (1.95 million USDT), with price closing lower on the latter, suggesting a weakening in momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.3687–0.3887 swing, key levels to watch in the next 24 hours are 0.3844 (23.6%), 0.3813 (38.2%), and 0.3781 (50%). A breakdown below 0.3781 could target 0.3755 (61.8%) and 0.3735 (78.6%).

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy could involve entering long on a bullish engulfing pattern followed by a close above the 20-period MA, with a stop loss placed below the 50-period MA. A short entry may be considered on a bearish doji forming near the upper Bollinger Band with RSI above 70. This setup aligns with the observed price behavior and could be tested for robustness over multiple cycles.