Market Overview for Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) on 2025-09-24

• Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) broke below a key support level of 0.3665 and tested lower bounds at 0.3571, forming a bearish continuation pattern.
• Momentum weakened in the early hours, with RSI hitting oversold territory near 0.3600 and failing to rebound strongly.
• Volatility expanded during the 04:15–04:45 ET period as volume spiked to over 2.5 million, signaling intensified selling pressure.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the selloff, with price finding temporary refuge near the lower band at 0.359 before a partial rebound.
• Fibonacci retracement levels confirmed a key 61.8% level at 0.3635, which initially resisted further declines but ultimately failed.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-23, Stellar/Tether (XLMUSDT) opened at $0.3706, reached a high of $0.3729, a low of $0.3571, and closed at $0.3704 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. The total volume traded over 24 hours was 37.5 million XLM, with a notional turnover of approximately $13.2 million.

The price action on the 15-minute chart showed a clear bearish bias throughout the early to mid-part of the day, with a decisive breakdown below the 0.3665 support level that acted as a prior pivot. A deep selloff occurred between 04:15 and 06:00 ET, during which the RSI dropped into oversold territory. However, the subsequent partial recovery failed to retest key resistance, suggesting weak conviction in a near-term rebound. Notably, a long bearish candle on the 15-minute chart around 04:15 ET confirmed the strength of the downward move.

Structure & Formations

A clear bearish continuation pattern developed as price broke below the 0.3665 support and found temporary refuge at the 0.3618 level. A potential double-bottom formation at 0.3601 was evident but lacked strong follow-through. The 0.3571 level acted as a critical floor, and the 0.3635 Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%) initially offered some resistance but failed.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, with price finding support at the lower band near 0.3590 before a minor rebound. The 15-minute chart’s 50-period MA was below the 20-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Moving Averages, MACD & RSI

The 50-period and 20-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained in a bearish crossover configuration, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend. MACD lines showed a bearish divergence as the price attempted to recover but failed to gain upward momentum. The RSI dipped into oversold territory around 0.3600 but failed to generate a strong rebound, indicating weak bullish conviction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 04:15–04:45 ET window, reaching over 2.5 million XLM, coinciding with the lowest point of the day. This spike confirmed the selloff rather than suggesting a reversal. However, a divergence between price and volume appeared during the subsequent recovery phase, where volume decreased despite a price rebound, indicating a weaker bullish signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key 61.8% retracement level at 0.3635 was tested twice but failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish bias. A shallow 38.2% level at 0.3682 offered resistance but was quickly broken during the afternoon rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish momentum and key support failures, a potential backtesting strategy could involve shorting on a break below 0.3665 with a stop-loss above the 0.3685 level. A target of 0.3590–0.3570 could be used based on the recent volatility and RSI oversold readings. This strategy would benefit from a low false-breakout filter (e.g., requiring a close below 0.3660 on high volume) and would aim to capture a continuation of the downward trend.