Market Overview for Stargate Finance/Tether (STGUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• • •
• STGUSDT declined from 0.2163 to 0.1977 in 24 hours, with a -8.6% drop from open to close.
• High volatility persisted with a 20-period SD of ~0.003, and volume surged to 3.5M at session low.
• RSI reached 24 near close, indicating oversold conditions but no immediate reversal signal.
• Bollinger Bands tightened midday before price broke below the lower band, suggesting bearish momentum.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-03, STGUSDT opened at 0.2119 and peaked at 0.2163 before closing at 0.1977 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The pair traded between 0.2163 and 0.1972, with a total traded volume of ~17.7 million contracts and a notional turnover of ~$3.6 million. The 24-hour session was marked by bearish momentum and a lack of strong reversal signals.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a clear bearish bias, with price failing to reclaim key resistance levels above 0.2060. A strong engulfing bearish pattern emerged around 19:30–20:00 ET-1 as price dropped from 0.2092 to 0.2064 in two consecutive candles. A doji formed near 0.2076 at 21:45 ET-1, suggesting potential short-term indecision, but the trend remained intact. Key support levels were identified at 0.2005 and 0.1972, both of which saw consolidation during the latter half of the session.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover with the 20-period MA below the 50-period MA since around 19:00 ET-1. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was near 0.2120, while the 200-period MA sat at ~0.2090, reinforcing a medium-term bearish bias. A cross above the 50-period MA would be necessary to confirm a reversal in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and declined further through the session, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI dropped to 24 by 12:00 ET, suggesting an oversold condition. However, without a strong bullish divergence or a breakout above the 50-level on RSI, the pair may remain range-bound or continue its downward drift.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as price broke below the lower Bollinger Band in the final candle, confirming a potential short-term trend continuation. The contraction observed between 02:00–04:00 ET suggested a low-volatility consolidation phase before the bearish breakout. Price traded near the lower band for the last 12 hours, indicating a strong bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked above 300k in the 16:00–16:45 ET timeframe, coinciding with a sharp drop below 0.2000. Notional turnover increased in line with the price drop, confirming the bearish move. A divergence in volume and price was noted in the 07:00–09:00 ET timeframe, where volume was relatively low despite a modest rebound in price.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the 0.2163–0.1972 swing identified key retracement levels at 38.2% (~0.2033) and 61.8% (~0.2063). Price spent time consolidating around the 61.8% level before breaking through. A retest of the 38.2% level could trigger a counter-trend bounce, but only if bullish volume confirms the move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and RSI reaching oversold territory, a potential mean-reversion strategy may be tested: entering a long position on a close above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (0.2033), with a stop-loss at the 0.2000 support and a target at 0.2060. This strategy would require confirmation from the 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA and a divergence in the MACD. The setup is high-risk, as it relies on a short-term bounce in a strong bearish trend, but it could offer a low-risk entry for aggressive traders anticipating a bounce.