Market Overview for Stargate Finance/Tether (STGUSDT) – 2025-10-03

• STGUSDT closed near 0.1979 after a morning sell-off and late afternoon rally.
• A bearish gap in early trading was later filled as buyers retook control post 16:00 ET.
• Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern and higher lows in the 15-minute chart near 0.1975.
• RSI entered oversold territory before a reversal, while volume surged during the final 2-hour rally.
• Volatility expanded sharply as price broke above the upper Bollinger Band in the final hours of the 24-hour window.

Stargate Finance/Tether (STGUSDT) opened at 0.1966 (12:00 ET − 1) and traded between 0.1941 and 0.2163 before closing at 0.1979 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 38,624,192.5 with a notional turnover of 7,651,751.44 in the 24-hour period. The session featured a late afternoon breakout from consolidation and a late-day bullish reversal.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key support zone between 0.1975 and 0.1980, which held during multiple tests, suggesting strong buyer interest in that range. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30 ET as price closed above 0.2004 after an opening near 0.2001. This pattern confirmed a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. A bearish doji was visible at 23:45 ET near 0.1972, indicating indecision before a sharp recovery overnight. Price later tested and held above the prior 24-hour high of 0.2163, indicating growing confidence among buyers.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute chart showed price closing above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages by the end of the session, indicating a short-term bullish tilt. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sat at 0.1992, while the 200-period MA was at 0.1945, suggesting that the current price is above both key averages and may be consolidating into a new uptrend. A crossover between the 50 and 200-day MAs remains to be confirmed but appears increasingly likely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line mid-morning and remained in positive territory for the remainder of the session, signaling sustained bullish momentum. The RSI entered the oversold zone (below 30) at 03:30 ET and rebounded strongly, reaching 52 by the session close, suggesting a healthy short-term reversal. Divergence between price and RSI was not observed, indicating strong alignment between momentum and price action.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply in the last 3 hours of the 24-hour window as price closed above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong breakout potential. Earlier in the session, price remained within a narrow range between 0.1975 and 0.2001, a contraction that may have signaled a consolidation phase before the final rally. The 20-period standard deviation was at 0.0037, reflecting moderate to high volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the final 2-hour window, reaching a peak of 1,375,574.9 at 15:00 ET, coinciding with the price breakout above 0.2087. Notional turnover also surged during this period, suggesting strong institutional or large-cap buyer involvement. The divergence between early bearish volume and late bullish volume may indicate a shift in control from sellers to buyers, reinforcing the breakout's validity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the swing from 0.1941 (2025-10-02 22:30 ET) to 0.2163 (2025-10-03 16:00 ET) showed key levels at 61.8% (0.2051) and 78.6% (0.2121). Price stalled near the 78.6% level and then pulled back slightly before closing above 0.1979, suggesting that traders may be looking for a retest of the 0.2051 level for further confirmation of bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the late-day bullish breakout and strong volume confirmation, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering long at the close of the 15-minute candle at 16:00 ET (price 0.2155), with a stop loss placed just below the 0.1975 support zone. A take-profit target could be set at 0.2220, which aligns with the 23.6% extension of the latest bullish swing. This strategy would aim to capture the continuation of the breakout phase while managing risk based on the defined support levels. A trailing stop could be added once the price surpasses the 0.2200 level to lock in gains.