Market Overview for Spell Token/Tether (SPELLUSDT) - 2025-11-02

• Spell Token/Tether (SPELLUSDT) experienced a 0.34% decline over 24 hours amid moderate volatility and uneven volume.
• Price formed a bearish divergence near 0.000325, with RSI showing oversold conditions and a potential rebound.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed in early morning hours, signaling consolidation before late-day price breakouts.
• Notional turnover spiked during 19:00–20:00 ET as price approached key resistance levels.

Opening and Price Range

Spell Token/Tether (SPELLUSDT) opened at 0.0003197 on 2025-11-01 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0003214 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET. The high reached 0.0003249 and the low hit 0.0003148 during the 24-hour period. Total volume across the 96 15-minute intervals was 697.8 million SPELL, with a total turnover of approximately $227,500 in USDT. Price action reflects a choppy session with no clear directional bias.

Structure and Key Levels

Price movement revealed three key support levels during the session: 0.0003206, 0.0003188, and 0.0003165, with the latter showing stronger rejection and consolidation. On the resistance side, 0.0003229, 0.0003244, and 0.0003236 were tested multiple times, but all attempts to break above 0.0003249 were unsuccessful. A morning bearish engulfing pattern formed around 19:00–20:00 ET, suggesting a short-term bearish bias. A doji at 0.0003223 during the early afternoon hinted at indecision.

Moving Averages and Trend Direction

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained in close proximity, indicating a sideways trend during the session. For daily analysis, the 50-period MA currently sits at 0.0003227, slightly above the 100-period at 0.0003222. The 200-period MA at 0.0003218 suggests a neutral to slightly bearish bias. Price action remains within a tight range without a clear break above or below these critical averages, which may continue to act as dynamic support and resistance in the short term.

Momentum and Volatility Metrics

MACD (12,26,9) showed a bearish crossover early in the session, followed by a bullish divergence in the late afternoon. RSI-14 fluctuated between 28 and 55, reaching oversold territory around 16:30–17:00 ET before rebounding. Bollinger Bands tightened during the early morning consolidation phase and expanded during the 19:00–20:30 ET volatility spike. Price spent a significant portion of the day inside the bands, indicating a lack of strong momentum either direction.

Volume and Turnover Observations

Volume was unevenly distributed, with a significant spike occurring during the 19:00–20:30 ET period as price approached the 0.0003249 level. The volume reached 105 million SPELL, with a notional turnover of ~$34,000—far above the average of ~$5,000 during quieter hours. A notable divergence occurred between price and volume during 04:15–05:30 ET, where price rose but volume declined, hinting at weak bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Swings

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.0003148–0.0003249 swing, 61.8% (0.0003213) and 38.2% (0.0003218) levels acted as key support zones. Price found repeated rejection at the 61.8% level before testing the 38.2% zone later in the session. On the daily timeframe, the 50% retracement level of a previous larger swing sits at 0.0003215, which aligns with the 24-hour close and could provide near-term support.

Forward-Looking Perspective and Risk Consideration

The 24-hour session ended with price near a critical support level, suggesting potential for a rebound or further consolidation. If buyers step in near 0.0003188, a test of the 0.0003229 resistance could follow. However, a break below 0.0003165 may trigger further bearish momentum. Investors should remain cautious of volume divergence and bearish candlestick patterns as potential warning signs.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for this pair could involve combining RSI-14 and Bollinger Band signals for directional bias. For example, long entries could be triggered when price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band and RSI remains below 65 (indicating controlled momentum), while short entries could be considered on breaks below the lower band with RSI under 35. To implement this effectively, accurate RSI-14 data is essential. However, the retrieval attempt for the RSI-14 series for the ticker “RULE.B” (Adaptive Core ETF) encountered an issue. It is likely that the correct ticker symbol for the Adaptive Core ETF in the data feed is simply “RULE” without the “.B” suffix. Confirming this would allow accurate backtesting of the strategy using the correct RSI-14 data from 2022-01-01 to today. Once the correct ticker is validated, historical RSI-14 data can be retrieved and used to refine the strategy's effectiveness.