Market Overview for Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) declined over 24 hours with a high of $0.2888 and low of $0.2739.
• The pair traded below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating bearish bias.
• RSI moved into oversold territory late in the session, while volume surged near the 24-hour low.
• A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 17:00 ET as price dropped from $0.2882 to $0.2841.
• Volatility expanded in the final 4 hours, with price breaking below the Bollinger Band lower limit.

Sonic/Tether (SUSDT) opened at $0.2838 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.2888, and closed at $0.2787 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Total 24-hour volume was 44,501,474.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $12,367,413.00.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a series of bearish consolidations and a sharp breakdown in the final hours. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed around 17:00 ET, signaling a shift in sentiment from short-term bullish momentum to bearish exhaustion. A doji appeared at 02:00 ET, suggesting indecision at critical support levels. The price found temporary resistance at $0.2838 and support at $0.278, both levels repeatedly tested throughout the session. A 61.8% Fibonacci level from the $0.278 to $0.2888 swing aligned closely with the key consolidation area at $0.2825–$0.2838.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (0.2843) and 50-period MA (0.2835) both acted as bearish reference points, with price settling below both at the 24-hour close. The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 03:00–05:00 ET window, coinciding with increased volatility. Price closed just below the lower band at $0.2787, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a near-term bounce.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative by 18:00 ET and remained bearish for the remainder of the session, with a bearish crossover in the final hour. The RSI moved into oversold territory (28.3) by 09:00 ET, then rebounded slightly, but remained below 30 for much of the session. This suggests the market may test support at $0.276, but a bearish continuation remains probable unless volume confirms a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 3,746,754.6 at 01:30 ET, coinciding with a sharp sell-off from $0.2814 to $0.2784. Notional turnover reached its peak at the same time, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, volume dipped below average in the final 6 hours, suggesting weaker conviction behind further downside. Price and volume diverged slightly after 08:00 ET as price dipped below $0.28, but volume remained muted, indicating a potential exhaustion phase in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $0.278 (2025-10-03 23:45 ET) to $0.2888 (2025-10-03 17:00 ET), key levels at 38.2% ($0.2836), 50.0% ($0.2834), and 61.8% ($0.2832) acted as short-term support zones. The 61.8% level held briefly but failed to prevent the breakdown at 01:30 ET.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy leverages a combination of RSI oversold readings and Fibonacci support levels to identify potential reversal entry points. A long entry is triggered when RSI falls below 30, volume increases by at least 30% above the 20-period average, and the price is within 2% of a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The stop-loss is placed 1.5% below the entry, and the take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci resistance level. The strategy would have triggered a long signal at 04:00 ET when RSI dropped to 29.1 and volume increased by 45%. However, the trade failed as price continued lower, suggesting either a weak reversal or a false signal due to divergent volume patterns.