Market Overview: Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) – Volatility, Reversal, and Key Resistance Clarity

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• The price of Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) surged from a morning low of 0.8163 to a 24-hour high of 1.0471, closing at 0.9005 as of 12:00 ET.
• A sharp reversal occurred after reaching 1.0257, with bearish momentum intensifying as RSI dropped below 50.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening after the 06:00–09:00 ET spike, and volume surged to over 5M contracts in the midday rally.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at the morning low, followed by a bearish divergence between price and RSI in the afternoon.
• Key Fibonacci levels at 0.9355 (61.8% retracement) and 0.9685 (38.2% retracement) were tested multiple times during the session.

Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at 0.831 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and closed at 0.9005 by 12:00 ET the following day. The pair reached a high of 1.0471 and a low of 0.8163 over the 24-hour window. The total trading volume was 189,763,313.59 USDT, while the notional turnover (volume × price) averaged a peak during the sharp rally between 05:45–06:00 ET.

The 15-minute chart revealed a strong bullish impulse during the early morning hours, breaking above the 50-period moving average and forming a bullish engulfing pattern as the price surged from 0.8295 to 0.8651. The rally continued into the early afternoon, with the 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA, indicating short-term bullish bias. However, by midday, the price began to consolidate around the 0.9655–0.9355 Fibonacci range and started showing bearish divergence on the RSI, which peaked at 72 before the price dropped to 0.9317.

Bollinger Bands reflected a volatility spike around the 08:15–09:00 ET timeframe when the price broke out to 1.0471, with the bands reaching their widest point. The price then moved back toward the lower band and closed just above the 0.9005–0.9005 mid-channel level, indicating a potential exhaustion of the recent bullish momentum. The 200-period MA on the daily chart remained below the 50-period MA, suggesting longer-term bearish bias persists.

The volume profile confirmed the initial rally with volumes exceeding 5 million USDT in the 05:45–07:00 ET window but dropped sharply afterward, hinting at a lack of follow-through. A bearish divergence between the price and RSI, along with the price testing 0.9655 (a key Fibonacci level), suggests that a retest of the 0.9005 support could be imminent. If the pair fails to break above the 0.9355–0.9317 range, further consolidation or a bearish move to the 0.8651–0.845 level could follow. Investors should monitor the 0.9005 level closely over the next 24 hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed multiple key formations, including a bullish engulfing pattern during the morning low and a bearish divergence in the RSI after 13:00 ET. A strong bearish pinbar emerged at 13:00 ET with a high of 0.9310 and a close of 0.9317, signaling a potential reversal. The price also formed a large doji around the 0.9005–0.9005 level, indicating indecision. Key support levels appear at 0.8943–0.8966 and 0.8796–0.8890, while resistance remains at 0.9355–0.9655.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA (bullish crossover) during the morning rally. However, by 13:00 ET, the 20 MA began to cross below the 50 MA, signaling a potential bearish turn. The 50-period MA on the daily chart remains below the 200-period MA, indicating a bearish trend in the broader time frame. The 50 MA on the daily chart currently sits around 0.8635, which could act as a key support level if the current bearish trend continues.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line moved into positive territory during the morning rally and peaked at 0.0256 before crossing below the signal line, indicating a bearish divergence. RSI reached 72 before falling back to 51 by the close, suggesting overbought conditions during the rally and a possible bearish correction. The MACD histogram also began to contract, hinting at a potential end to the bullish momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the 05:45–08:00 ET window, with the bands widening to over 0.11 range. The price tested the upper band multiple times before retreating. By the afternoon, the bands had begun to contract slightly, indicating a potential pullback. The price closed near the lower band, suggesting a possible bounce or continuation of the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over 5 million USDT during the 05:45–06:00 ET window as the price pushed toward 1.0471, confirming the bullish breakout. However, volume dropped sharply afterward, with no sustained buying pressure. The notional turnover (volume × price) peaked at 5.1 million USDT at 05:45 ET but declined afterward. A bearish divergence between price and volume became apparent after 11:00 ET, with the price falling while volume remained elevated.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.8163 to 1.0471, key levels include 0.9355 (61.8% retracement) and 0.9685 (38.2% retracement). The price has tested both levels multiple times during the session. The 61.8% retracement level appears to have acted as a significant resistance during the afternoon. Looking forward, a breakdown below the 0.8943–0.8966 level could trigger a move toward the 0.8796–0.8890 zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The technical setup on the 15-minute chart suggests a potential mean reversion strategy could be viable, particularly in the 0.8943–0.9355 range. A possible entry could be triggered when the price crosses below the 20-period MA after testing the 0.9005–0.9005 level. Given the bearish divergence in the RSI and the closing near the lower Bollinger Band, a short position could be considered with a stop-loss above the 0.9355 level. A take-profit target could be set at the 0.8796–0.8890 level. This setup aligns well with the backtesting strategy that prioritizes price divergence in overbought conditions and retests of key Fibonacci levels.