Market Overview for Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT)

• Price declined 5.3% in 24 hours, with bearish momentum intensifying in last 4 hours
• Volatility expanded sharply with Bollinger Band width increasing by 42%
• Volume spiked 13x in late session as price tested 0.375–0.385 support zone
• RSI entered oversold territory (<30) near 0.3841 close, hinting potential bounce

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-11-02, Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at $0.3951 and traded as high as $0.4041 before closing at $0.3841 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was $0.3759, with total volume of 12,125,709.2 and turnover of $4,669,631.71. Price action showed a strong bearish bias, with a significant selloff in the afternoon ET hours and potential support at 0.375–0.385.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish flag pattern from 0.4016 to 0.3841, with a key support zone between 0.375 and 0.385. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 0.395–0.3932, confirming the downward shift. A doji near 0.391–0.3911 suggests indecision but failed to trigger a reversal.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart both crossed below price, reinforcing the bearish tilt. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA at 0.3963 is above the 100-EMA at 0.3942 and the 200-EMA at 0.3925, suggesting a potential medium-term divergence in trend direction.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative at -0.0008 with a bearish crossover, while RSI dipped below 30 to 28.8 at the close, indicating oversold conditions. This could imply a short-term bounce unless sellers continue to dominate.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the late hours of the session, with the 20-period band width increasing by 42%. Price closed near the lower band at 0.3841, suggesting elevated volatility and potential for a mean reversion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged 13x above the 24-hour average during the selloff from 16:15 ET to 17:00 ET, with a notional turnover of $1.5 million in the two-hour period. Price and volume aligned in the downtrend, with no clear divergence observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 0.618 retracement level (0.387) was tested before breaking down, followed by a break of the 0.3841 (0.50) level. Shorter-term 15-minute swings suggest a potential bounce from 0.3765–0.3775 (38.2%) if buyers step in.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve exiting long positions upon the appearance of a Bearish Engulfing pattern, with a target exit at the close of the next 15-minute candle. A stop-loss could be placed above the high of the engulfing pattern, and a trailing stop could be activated if the price retraces above the 20-EMA. This would align with the observed 15-minute bearish signals and the current bearish momentum.