Market Overview for Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT)

• Price dropped from $1.48 to $1.31 on heavy volume, with a final close at $1.3189.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with RSI reaching oversold levels near 25.
• Strong bearish momentum seen on the 15-minute chart, with multiple engulfing and bearish continuation patterns.
• Bollinger Bands show widening volatility, with price currently trading near the lower band.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.618 and 0.786 suggest potential short-term support near $1.29.

Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at $1.4039 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $1.4993, dropped to a low of $1.2045, and closed at $1.3189 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 111.78 million units, while notional turnover reached $152.15 million over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bearish trend with a series of engulfing patterns and long lower shadows, particularly after the mid-session high around $1.48. A notable bearish reversal appeared at $1.44–$1.45, followed by a sharp decline into the lower band of Bollinger Bands. Key support levels were identified at $1.35, $1.29, and $1.25, with the $1.3189 close suggesting a consolidation near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. A long lower shadow near $1.32–$1.33 also hinted at potential short-term support.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum indicators (20- and 50-period) on the 15-minute chart confirmed the bearish trend, with both lines trending downward and price consistently trading below them. The longer-term moving averages (50, 100, 200-period) on daily data also showed a bearish bias, reinforcing the overall downtrend. Price remains below all key moving averages, increasing the likelihood of continued bearish momentum unless a strong reversal occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a potential backtesting strategy, one could consider a mean-reversion approach triggered by RSI hitting oversold levels (below 30) and a Fibonacci retracement of 0.618 or 0.786. A stop-loss at the nearest lower Fibonacci level and a take-profit at 0.382 could form a risk-managed trade. This aligns with the observed bearish exhaustion and potential for a rebound in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early-morning hours, especially between 04:00–06:00 ET, as the price fell from $1.29 to $1.25. However, turnover diverged from price during the 01:00–03:00 ET period, with volume declining despite continued price movement. This divergence suggests weakening conviction among sellers or buyers, possibly hinting at a near-term reversal. The recent volume spikes confirm price movements, especially during the midday and early-evening sell-off.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility widened significantly, particularly after the mid-session high around $1.48, with the Bollinger Bands expanding to reflect increased market anxiety. The price has spent most of the session near or at the lower band, indicating a potential overreaction by bears. A retest of the upper band might require a sharp reversal or news-driven bounce, but the current setup remains bearish.

Looking ahead, the next 24 hours may see a test of the $1.29 support level, with the potential for a mean-reversion bounce if RSI shows signs of recovery. However, the bearish momentum is still strong, and a continued decline below $1.25 could trigger further selling. Traders should remain cautious of divergences between price and volume and watch for key levels on the Fibonacci and RSI.