Market Overview for Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) on 2025-10-10

• Price fell from a 24-hour high of $0.7795 to a low of $0.6756 amid heightened bearish momentum.
• RSI oversold below 30 late, suggesting potential short-term rebound.
• Volume surged during the selloff but diverged with price after 12:00 ET.
• Key support at $0.6972 and resistance at $0.7215 formed during the session.
• Volatility expanded as price tested Bollinger Band lower bounds in the latter half.

Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at $0.75 on 2025-1009 12:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of $0.7795 before declining to a low of $0.6756. The 15-minute chart closed at $0.6886 on 2025-1010 16:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 12.26 million, with a notional turnover of $8.89 million.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart showed a bearish breakdown, with price forming multiple bearish engulfing patterns and a long lower shadow doji near the $0.7215 level. Key support was tested at $0.6972 and $0.6886, with the latter forming as a potential short-term floor. Resistance levels at $0.725 and $0.730 appear relevant for the next 24 hours. A potential bullish reversal is suggested by the late session doji at $0.6886, though confirmation above $0.7103 is needed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish and below the current price, with the 50SMA pulling down sharply. Daily MA levels (50, 100, 200) remain well below current price levels, reinforcing the bearish trend. Price is now below all three long-term moving averages, indicating continued bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD remained negative throughout the session, with bearish divergence noted in the final hours. RSI fell into oversold territory below 30 during the last three hours, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, the RSI has not yet broken above 50, indicating the trend remains bearish. A closing above $0.7103 could see a temporary pullback but likely not a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with price testing the lower Bollinger Band at $0.6883 in the final hour. This contraction and subsequent expansion suggests a potential reversal, although sustained momentum above the mid-Band at $0.7103 is required to confirm a bullish bias. Price remains below the 20-period moving average, and the Band width has widened, indicating increased uncertainty.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, peaking at 1.22 million during the 15:15 ET hour when price dropped to $0.6897. This high-volume move was followed by a divergence in price and volume in the final three hours, as turnover fell while price stabilized. A bullish divergence may be forming, but confirmation is needed. The total notional turnover of $8.89 million suggests significant participation during the selloff, but fading volume indicates a potential exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels derived from the recent swing high at $0.7795 and low at $0.6756 show key retracement levels at 38.2% ($0.7305) and 61.8% ($0.7076). Price has bounced off the 61.8% level and is now consolidating around $0.6886. A break above $0.7076 could see a test of $0.7305, while a break below $0.6886 risks a retest of the 2025-1009 low.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be to monitor the interaction between RSI and Fibonacci levels. For example, if RSI remains below 30 for two consecutive 15-minute intervals while price is above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, a long entry may be considered. Exit signals could be based on a close below the 20-period moving average or a RSI break above 50. This approach could be optimized with trailing stops and dynamic take-profit levels based on the nearest resistance.