Market Overview for Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) on 2025-09-17

• Price dropped from 1.4730 to 1.2402, a 15.9% decline.
• Volatility surged early in the session before stabilizing in the afternoon.
• RSI remains in oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.
• Volume declined after 14:00 ET, indicating weakening selling pressure.
• Bollinger Bands show a moderate contraction late in the session.

Somnia/Tether (SOMIUSDT) opened at 1.4730 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.4821, and closed at 1.2402 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET. The pair experienced a significant intraday decline, driven by strong bearish momentum early in the session. Total 24-hour volume was 82,099,314 units, with a notional turnover of $106,654,005 (calculated using average price).

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a deep bearish trend, with the price failing to hold above 1.38 after the early sell-off. A key support level appears to be forming around 1.32, where the price tested and bounced slightly during the overnight session. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 1.3244–1.3278, suggesting a potential reversal could occur if the price stabilizes above this level. However, the formation is weak and requires confirmation from follow-through buying. A long lower shadow at 1.2793–1.2812 also hints at buying interest during the morning hours. No clear reversal doji was formed, but the price action suggests exhaustion in the downward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show the price has remained below both, indicating bearish momentum. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA during the overnight hours, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages show the price is significantly below the 200SMA, a strong bearish signal. The distance from the 50SMA (1.34) is over 800 pips, indicating the price is in a deep correction phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a significant bearish divergence in the early hours of the session, with the histogram expanding as the price fell. The signal line crossed below the MACD line, reinforcing the bearish momentum. By 04:00 ET, the MACD histogram showed a minor contraction, suggesting a potential slowdown in the downward move. The RSI reached oversold levels below 30 in the early morning, remaining there until the afternoon. This suggests the price could find near-term support and potentially bounce from current levels if buyers step in.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion during the initial sell-off, followed by a moderate contraction in the afternoon. The price is currently trading near the lower band at 1.23, indicating it is in a period of consolidation. A retest of the upper band at ~1.35 could be expected if the price rebounds. The contraction in the bands also suggests a potential for a breakout or continuation move, depending on buying or selling pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the early hours of the session, with the 16:00–17:00 ET time frame (UTC-4) showing the highest trading activity. The highest single-candle volume was 8,209,931 units. However, volume began to taper off after 14:00 ET, which suggests weakening selling pressure. Notional turnover also peaked in the early hours and declined later in the session. The divergence between price and volume suggests the sell-off could be losing momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the intraday swing (1.4821–1.2402), the key levels to watch are:

• 23.6% – 1.3953
• 38.2% – 1.3696
• 50.0% – 1.3612
• 61.8% – 1.3260
• 78.6% – 1.2987

The price appears to have found temporary support near the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3260. A break above this level could indicate a potential recovery toward the 50% and 38.2% levels, while a break below could extend the decline toward the 78.6% level at 1.2987.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed price behavior and technical indicators, a backtesting strategy could be constructed as follows: enter a long position when the price closes above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.3260) and the RSI crosses above 30, confirming oversold conditions. A stop-loss can be placed below the 1.2987 level (78.6% retracement) to limit risk. A take-profit target can be set at the 50.0% retracement level (1.3612). This approach would aim to capture a potential bounce while managing downside risk based on Fibonacci and RSI signals. Given the recent volume divergence, this setup could offer a favorable risk-reward profile for a short-to-medium-term trade.