Market Overview for Solayer/BNB (LAYERBNB) – October 3, 2025

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• Solayer/BNB traded in a narrow range for most of the session, with a late sharp selloff dragging the close below the morning high.
• Key resistance emerged around 0.0003995–0.0004000, while 0.0003900–0.0003920 appears to hold as strong support.
• Volume surged during the 20:45–21:30 ET window, coinciding with a sharp 1.7% price drop.
• RSI signaled bearish momentum in the second half of the session, suggesting potential for continued downside.
• Price is consolidating near a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the prior 24-hour high, indicating potential for a reversal or breakdown.

The Solayer/BNB pair opened at 0.0003961 at 12:00 ET on October 2, reached a high of 0.0003995, and closed at 0.0003783 at 12:00 ET on October 3. The total volume over the 24-hour window was approximately 17,300 units of LAYERBNB, with a notional turnover of roughly 6.68 BNB. The price action shows a bearish bias, with a significant drop occurring during the 20:45–21:00 ET window when the price fell to 0.0003931.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart reveals a bearish structure, with key resistance levels forming around 0.0003995 and 0.0003976. A significant bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 20:45 ET, where a large red candle opened near the high and closed near the low. This pattern is often a precursor to further downside. A key support level appears to be forming at 0.0003900, as the price has bounced off this level multiple times. Additionally, a doji appeared at 0.0003933, suggesting indecision and potential reversal in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with the price sitting below both and the 50-period line declining more steeply. This indicates that the short-term bias remains bearish. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages also appear bearish, with the price trading below the 50-period MA and the 100/200-period lines converging slightly. This alignment suggests a continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has turned negative and remains below the signal line, signaling bearish momentum. The histogram has been shrinking since the mid-session, indicating a potential slowdown in the downward move. The RSI has dipped below 30 multiple times, signaling oversold conditions, but the lack of a strong rebound suggests weak conviction in the downside. A move below 30 again without a significant reversal could indicate further weakness.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the sharp selloff, indicating an increase in volatility. The price has spent the majority of the session within the lower third of the bands, reinforcing the bearish tone. The lower band currently sits at around 0.0003850, and a break below this level could open the path to 0.0003800. The upper band has acted as a resistance, with the price failing to close above 0.0004000 in the last 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has been erratic, with a sharp spike during the 20:45–21:30 ET window, where over 4,800 units of LAYERBNB were traded. This increase coincided with a 1.7% drop in price, indicating potential selling pressure. Turnover has also increased during this period, with a total notional turnover of around 1.83 BNB in that window. While volume and price are aligned in this move, the lack of follow-through suggests weak conviction. The price has also traded on very low volume during several periods, including 18:00–20:45 ET, indicating a lack of interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing from 0.0003729 to 0.0003995 shows that the current price of 0.0003783 is near the 61.8% retracement level. This is a critical area, and a break below this could target the 78.6% level at around 0.0003655. The 38.2% retracement level is at 0.0003858, and a failure to hold this could confirm a deeper bearish move. The price appears to be consolidating near this level, suggesting that a breakout in either direction is possible.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure, oversold RSI readings, and a key Fibonacci retracement level at 0.0003783, a potential backtest could involve a short entry near 0.0003800 with a stop just above 0.0003858. The target could be set at 0.0003750, with a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:1. If the price continues to show strength around the 0.0003995 resistance level, a long position could also be considered, with an entry near that level and a stop below 0.0003960. This strategy would benefit from a confirmation of the bearish momentum as well as the ability of the price to find support at key Fibonacci levels.