Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – September 21, 2025

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• Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) dipped below 35,500 during the 24-hour period, with bearish momentum evident in oversold RSI and expanding Bollinger Bands.
• A key support area near 35,350 showed resilience with multiple bounces, while resistance remained at 35,620 amid bearish divergences.
• Volume spiked during the overnight decline but waned as price approached critical Fibonacci levels, suggesting potential consolidation.
• MACD remained negative throughout, indicating bearish control with no clear reversal signs on candlestick formations.
• Price closed near 35,400 after an intraday high of 35,748, with total volume and turnover pointing to moderate distribution pressure.

Market Summary at a Glance

At 12:00 ET on September 21, 2025, Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at 35,628, reached a high of 35,748, dipped to a low of 35,254, and closed at 35,400. The 24-hour volume totaled 1,819.164 units, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥61.2 million, reflecting moderate volatility and distribution pressure.

1. Structure & Formations

The price action over the last 24 hours shows a bearish bias, with a key support zone forming around 35,350–35,400, reinforced by three consecutive bounces. A 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern appeared near 35,600, followed by a deep decline. A doji at 35,520 suggests indecision, but bearish momentum continued through the night. A minor resistance level at 35,620 failed to hold during midday trading, reinforcing the bearish trend.

2. Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below current price levels, signaling bearish momentum. The daily chart shows the 50-period and 200-period EMAs converging around 35,450–35,500, with price currently below both, reinforcing a medium-term bearish outlook.

3. MACD & RSI

The MACD has remained negative for most of the 24-hour period, with a bearish crossover forming near 35,700. The RSI reached oversold territory in the 30–35 range during the overnight decline, which could suggest a short-term bounce is due. However, a bearish divergence between price and RSI is forming near 35,500, indicating continued bearish control.

4. Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly as price swung between 35,254 and 35,748, signaling heightened volatility. Current price of 35,400 is near the lower band, indicating bearish exhaustion and potential for a retest of the middle band at 35,500. A contraction in the next 24 hours could signal a period of consolidation.

5. Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the overnight decline, with a large bar at 35,276 reflecting heavy selling pressure. However, as price approached 35,400, volume waned, suggesting distribution is slowing. Notional turnover also dropped near the 35,400 level, pointing to reduced institutional interest and potential for a short-term rebound.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent 35,748–35,254 swing indicate key levels at 35,500 (61.8%) and 35,450 (78.6%), both of which have seen price consolidation. A break below 35,350 (88.6%) would trigger deeper bearish action, while a rebound above 35,500 could signal a short-term pullback.

7. Forward-Looking View and Risk

Price appears to be consolidating near the 35,400 support, with bearish momentum remaining intact. A break below 35,350 could trigger a test of 35,250, while a close above 35,500 might spark a temporary rebound. Investors should monitor volume and RSI divergence for early signs of trend exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest strategy involves a mean-reversion approach triggered by RSI crossing into oversold territory (<30) and a bullish divergence forming between RSI and price. Given the recent RSI levels and the bounce near 35,400, a short-term buy signal may be triggered. A stop-loss at 35,300 and a target near 35,550 align with recent Fibonacci levels and trend structure. This strategy could be applied in the next 24–48 hours as price consolidates near key support.