Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) – October 13, 2025

• Price surged to a 24-hour peak near ¥30,433 before retreating into consolidation
• Momentum showed mixed signals, with RSI overbought followed by bearish divergence
• Volatility remained elevated with Bollinger Band expansion
• Volume surged during key breakouts, confirming price strength in afternoon Asia
• Fibonacci support near ¥29,600 and ¥29,000 appears critical for near-term direction

SOLJPY opened at ¥28,846 on October 12 at 12:00 ET and peaked at ¥30,433 before closing at ¥29,375 on October 13 at 12:00 ET. The pair saw a 24-hour high of ¥30,433 and a low of ¥28,775, with total volume of 7,712.81 SOL and notional turnover of ¥233,630,044. The move was driven by sharp afternoon and evening rallies, followed by a late-night pullback under bearish pressure.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern near ¥29,740 on October 12 evening, followed by a strong bearish reversal on October 13 late night, signaling exhaustion after the rally. A key support level appears to be forming near ¥29,000, while resistance remains at ¥30,200–¥30,433. A doji formed at ¥30,000–¥30,000, hinting at indecision.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a bullish crossover during the afternoon and evening rally, confirming bullish momentum. The 50-period MA, however, began to flatten after the ¥30,400 level, suggesting a slowdown in upward bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 200-period MA, a potential precursor to a trend change or consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish divergence in the early hours, turning bearish after the ¥30,400 peak. RSI reached 75, entering overbought territory, followed by a sharp bearish divergence. The RSI has since corrected below 50, indicating a cooling of bullish momentum. These readings suggest traders are becoming cautious and may favor profit-taking or defensive positions in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning and evening rallies, indicating heightened volatility. Price reached the upper band multiple times before retreating, suggesting resistance at key levels. The lower band provided support during the late-night correction, holding the price above ¥29,000 for now.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the afternoon rally (¥29,900–¥30,433) and late-night pullback (¥30,400–¥29,375), confirming the strength of the moves. Notional turnover also rose sharply during these periods. Divergence occurred in the morning, where volume was relatively low despite a sharp price swing, possibly indicating a lack of conviction in the early bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at ¥29,600 acted as a key support during the overnight pullback, while the 38.2% level at ¥29,000 has yet to be tested. On the 15-minute chart, the ¥30,433 high is a key reference point for near-term retracements and extensions.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent overbought RSI readings and bearish divergence, a backtest using RSI as a signal with an overbought threshold of 70 would have identified sell opportunities after the ¥30,433 peak. The negative P&L approach for shorting (long return × -1) would align with such signals, assuming a 3-day holding period. With the 50-period MA flattening and RSI correcting, a short-biased strategy may find support in the next 24–48 hours, though confirmation above ¥30,200 could negate the short thesis.