Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) on 2025-10-12

• SOLJPY opened at 28003, surged to 28825, and closed at 28821 amid a volatile 24-hour span.
• A sharp rebound from 27361 to 28825 in the last 15 minutes showed strong short-term bullish momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the final hours, with volume peaking at 318.018 units in the 15:00–15:15 ET window.
• RSI entered overbought territory near 80, suggesting potential for a consolidation phase.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the final 4 hours, indicating heightened uncertainty ahead.

Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at 28003 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 28821 on 2025-10-12 at the same time, reaching a high of 28825 and a low of 27172. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 5518.869 units, with a notional turnover of ¥155,144,395 (approximate). The price action displayed strong bear-to-bull reversal dynamics, especially in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a key support zone between 27361 and 27495, where price found a floor after a prolonged decline. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 15:00–15:15 ET, with the closing candle surging from 27361 to 28353, followed by further strength to 28825. The formation suggests a short-term reversal may have taken hold. A critical resistance level lies at 28825–28828, where price capped at the close, indicating potential for a consolidation phase.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were trending upward in the final 3 hours, confirming bullish momentum. The MACD crossed above zero in the final hour, with a positive histogram expansion indicating strong bullish conviction. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period lines show a bearish crossover, suggesting a longer-term bear trend is still in place.

RSI and Bollinger Bands

Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed sharply above 80 in the final 45 minutes, signaling overbought conditions and a potential pullback. Bollinger Bands widened significantly from 14:00–16:00 ET, with price touching the upper band at 28825, indicating high volatility. This suggests increased uncertainty and a possible correction in the near term.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged in the final hour, peaking at 318.018 units in the 15:00–15:15 ET window, coinciding with the 28353–28825 rally. Turnover also spiked, confirming bullish conviction. However, the lack of follow-through after the high raises questions about the sustainability of the move. Divergence between price and volume in the last 15 minutes may signal exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing from 27172 (low) to 28825 (high), key levels include 28225 (23.6%), 28518 (38.2%), and 28686 (50%). Price closed near 28821, which is just above the 61.8% retracement level at 28695, suggesting a possible overshoot in the final 15 minutes. The near-term support lies at 27361–27528.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bullish engulfing pattern at 27361 and the sharp 15-minute rebound, a backtest hypothesis could involve entering long at the close of the bullish engulfing candle (28353) with a stop-loss below the swing low at 27361 and a target at 28825. This would test the effectiveness of using candlestick patterns and volume confirmation as entry signals in high-volatility crypto pairs like SOLJPY. The hypothesis aligns with the observed RSI overbought condition and the MACD divergence, suggesting momentum may not hold without further confirmation.