Market Overview: Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) on 2025-10-09

• • •
• Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at 33896 and closed near 34148, forming a bullish trend amid increasing volume.
• Price surged to 34975 before correcting sharply to 33767, showing strong intraday volatility and bearish pressure.
• RSI and MACD indicated overbought conditions during the high, but later showed bearish divergence as volume spiked downward.
• A key support level appears around 33728–33864, with a potential resistance cluster near 34500–34600.
• Bollinger Bands showed recent expansion, indicating heightened volatility, while Fibonacci levels suggest possible retracement targets.

Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at 33896 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08 and closed at 34148 at the same time on 2025-10-09. The 24-hour period saw a high of 34975 and a low of 33623, with total volume of 13,181.63 and turnover of ¥448,573,406. The pair displayed a strong intraday bullish push followed by a sharp pullback, indicating a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.

The candlestick structure revealed a bullish engulfing pattern early in the session, followed by a bearish harami as price corrected sharply. The price action formed a descending wedge as the day progressed, with key support found in the 33728–33864 range and resistance between 34500–34600. A 20-period and 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart showed a flattening of the bullish slope late in the day, indicating weakening momentum.

MACD crossed into the oversold zone after the pullback, while RSI bottomed near 30, signaling potential short-term buying interest. However, a bearish divergence formed between price and MACD during the downward leg, suggesting that the correction might not be over. Bollinger Bands expanded during the high-volume move up and compressed during the consolidation phase, highlighting increased uncertainty.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 33623–34975 swing indicated 34304 (61.8%) as a potential area of interest, and 34500 (78.6%) as a likely resistance. Volume spiked sharply on the high but declined significantly after the peak, pointing to exhaustion among buyers. The final hour of the 24-hour period showed a modest rebound, but without a clear breakout above the 34251–34304 cluster, further upside appears to be on hold.

A potential breakout above the 34304–34500 level could trigger renewed bullish momentum and retest the 34975 high, but a close below 33864 would confirm bearish control and risk a retest of 33623. Investors should remain cautious of high volatility and watch for divergence in momentum indicators ahead of the next 24-hour window.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtesting strategy could be based on the divergence observed in MACD and RSI during the sharp pullback, coupled with volume contraction. For example, a strategy that triggers a short position on bearish MACD divergence below the 34500 resistance and a long position on bullish MACD divergence above the 33864 support could be tested. The pullback from 34975 to 33767 aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a possible mean-reversion trade on the 33864–34020 range. If volume increases on retests of these levels, it would confirm the strength of the move and increase the signal's reliability.