Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY): 2025-10-06 12:00 ET

• Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) surged past key resistance, closing near its 24-hour high amid rising momentum and volume.
• RSI and MACD signaled bullish strength, with price staying above 20-period moving average.
• Volatility expanded as price broke through a descending wedge pattern, indicating a potential breakout.
• Bollinger Bands widened, showing increased price dispersion and confirming a high-volatility phase.
• Notional turnover increased sharply during the afternoon ET, aligning with a sharp price increase.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06, Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at 33952.0 and closed at 35096.0, after trading as high as 35520.0 and as low as 33612.0 over the 24-hour period. The total traded volume was 13,035.98 SOL, with a notional turnover of ¥454,723,706.02 (calculated from price × volume across all 15-minute candles).

Structure & Formations

The price formed a descending wedge pattern during the early hours of the session, with a decisive breakout occurring around 22:00 ET. A strong bullish engulfing pattern appeared during this breakout, reinforcing the move. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the prior swing low to the high held as a key support, which the price retested before pushing higher. A morning doji at 05:00 ET indicated a potential consolidation point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price moved above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. The 50-period moving average was rising sharply during the breakout phase. Over the daily time frame, the 50/100/200-period moving averages showed a bullish alignment, with the price sitting comfortably above the 100-period MA and trending upward.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line around 18:30 ET, confirming a bullish crossover. The histogram showed a consistent increase in momentum from 20:00 ET onward, with a final strong positive bar at the close. The RSI reached levels above 60, indicating growing bullish pressure, peaking at 68.3 before stabilizing around 63.5. No overbought signals were flagged, but the indicator remained in overbought territory for most of the session.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after 20:00 ET, as the price moved further away from the 20-period SMA. The price traded above the upper band for several hours, suggesting a strong bullish move. The 61.8% Fibonacci level coincided with the lower band earlier in the session, which the price retested before rising.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked to its highest levels between 22:00 ET and 02:00 ET, coinciding with a strong upward move. Notional turnover also surged during this period, confirming the price action. A divergence between price and volume was noted briefly around 04:00 ET, but the trend held firm as volume picked up again.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the recent 15-minute swing showed the 38.2% level at 34225.0 and the 61.8% level at 34760.0, both of which were tested and held during the session. On the daily chart, the 50% and 61.8% levels aligned with key moving averages and acted as dynamic support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a long position on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation, provided the RSI is above 50 and the price is above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages. A stop-loss is placed below the nearest Fibonacci level (e.g., 34760.0), and a take-profit target is set at 38.2% or 61.8% retracement levels above the breakout point. This approach leverages the confluence of price patterns, momentum, and trend alignment observed in the recent session. Given the current setup, this strategy could capture a portion of the ongoing upward trend if volatility persists.