Market Overview for Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) on 2025-09-23

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• SOLJPY opened at 32693.0 and closed at 32490.0 after a volatile 24-hour session with a high of 32740.0 and a low of 31909.0.
• Price action shows a bearish bias amid declining momentum and oversold RSI conditions late in the session.
• Volatility expanded in the second half of the day, with volume peaking around 500 units during a major downward move.
• Bollinger Bands widened during key dips, suggesting heightened uncertainty or potential reversal setups.
• Notable bearish engulfing and hanging man patterns emerged in the early hours, signaling potential exhaustion of bullish momentum.

SOLJPY opened at 32693.0 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, closed at 32490.0 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23, reaching a high of 32740.0 and a low of 31909.0. Total 24-hour volume was 7,875.36, with a notional turnover of ¥257,163,518 (calculated as volume × price weighted average). Price behavior was largely bearish, especially between 19:00 and 21:00 ET, when key resistance levels were broken.

Structure & Formations
Price broke below a key 32500.0 support level after a failed rebound in early ET hours, confirming bearish sentiment. A bearish engulfing pattern at 19:00 ET and a hanging man at 20:30 ET signaled potential exhaustion of buyers. A 32200.0 psychological level briefly held during a mid-session bounce but failed to sustain, indicating weak support. A potential short-term support at 32100.0 may now be under test.

Moving Averages & Momentum
The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-min chart crossed bearishly below price action, confirming the downward trend. RSI dipped into oversold territory near the 30.0 level by 05:00 ET, suggesting possible near-term exhaustion in selling pressure. MACD showed a narrowing histogram and crossed below the signal line, indicating weakening momentum. However, divergence between price and RSI suggests caution: while price continues down, RSI is not making new lows, implying potential near-term stabilization.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility
Volatility expanded during key downturns, with the Bollinger Bands widening sharply after the 19:00 ET candle. Price remained below the lower band for several periods, indicating high volatility and bearish pressure. A contraction in band width earlier in the day at 02:30 ET hinted at a potential breakout, which occurred to the downside.

Backtest Hypothesis
The observed bearish patterns and RSI divergence suggest a short-term reversal may be in play. A potential long entry for a countertrend trade could be placed near 32100.0, with a stop-loss below 31950.0 and a target at 32350.0. A backtest using a 20-EMA as a dynamic entry trigger and RSI below 30 as a confirmation filter would allow for testing the effectiveness of this strategy over a 24-hour window. This approach may help validate whether bearish continuation is likely or if a bounce is forming.