Market Overview: Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• Price declined 6.13% over 24 hours, closing at 155.40
• Key support tested near 155.52, with mixed volume confirmation
• Volatility spiked midday but stabilized, with bearish momentum intact
• RSI and MACD confirmed bearish divergence despite short-term rallies
• Bollinger Bands narrowed overnight, suggesting potential for breakout

Opening Narrative

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-11-05, Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) opened at $160.07 and traded as high as $163.93 before closing at $155.40 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-06. The pair experienced a 24-hour low of $157.11. Total volume amounted to 2,032,533.02 SOL, with a notional turnover of $321.8 million. The price action reflects bearish continuation with key support tested.

Structure & Formations

Price tested the 155.52 support level during the 15:45 ET candle, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. A doji appeared at 13:00 ET, signaling indecision. Resistance levels at 157.80 and 160.21 are now critical for potential reversals, with the former having been breached intraday.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA is bearishly aligned with the 50SMA. On the daily chart, the 50D is descending through the 100D and 200D averages, reinforcing a bearish bias. Price is currently below all three, suggesting continuation of the downtrend unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative and remains bearish, with the MACD line below the signal line. RSI has entered oversold territory at 29.5, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, but divergence in price and RSI implies the bearish trend may persist.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 14:00–15:30 ET window, with price hitting the lower band at 155.52. The narrowing of the bands overnight suggests a possible breakout in either direction, though the bearish bias makes a downward break more likely. Price remains within the 2-standard deviation range, indicating a contained move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 15:45 ET candle (114,727.683 SOL) coinciding with the test of support at 155.52. However, the price failed to close below it, indicating mixed strength. Notional turnover increased with the downward move, confirming the bearish sentiment, though the lack of follow-through after key levels suggests possible exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level of the recent 15-minute swing sits at 158.25, a level that failed to hold intraday. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger uptrend is at 154.30, which could offer additional support in the near term. A break below this would signal a deeper correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish technical setup, a MACD-based golden-cross strategy would require confirmation of a long entry signal. However, as the system could not identify the ticker “HOLD.P,” we recommend clarifying the exact trading symbol for backtesting. Assuming a valid symbol is provided, a 1-day-holding strategy based on MACD crossovers could be implemented and tested from 2022-01-01 to today to assess its viability. The current bearish trend in SOLUSDT suggests such a strategy would need short-term reversal indicators for effectiveness.