Market Overview for Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) - 2025-10-04

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• Price dropped from a 24-hour high of $237.00 to a low of $224.31, closing near $224.64.
• RSI below 30 indicates oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
• Volume increased sharply during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands show high volatility with price near the lower band, indicating a possible reversion.
• A key support level appears near $224.50, with a critical resistance at $233.55 based on 15-minute chart levels.

Market Summary

Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) opened at $233.25 on October 3 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $237.00, and closed at $224.64 as of 12:00 ET on October 4. Total 24-hour volume was 2,031,073.28 SOL, with a notional turnover of $479,358,511.93. Price action indicates a sharp bearish shift, with price testing and failing to hold key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours shows multiple bearish formations, including large-bodied red candles during the early New York session and a confirmed breakdown below key support at $231.50. The formation appears to be a bearish continuation pattern, with price now forming a descending triangle on the 15-minute chart. A key support level appears at $224.50, with $233.55 marking the nearest resistance. A doji formed near $234.33 may suggest indecision ahead of a potential bounce.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a steep downtrend, with price now trading well below both. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages remain bearish, with price in clear short-term bearish territory. The 50/200 MA crossover remains bearish, with no sign of a reversal in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is negative and trending downward, with a bearish crossover in the red zone, indicating continued selling pressure. The RSI has dropped below 30, indicating overbought conditions and a potential for a short-term bounce. However, the divergence between price and RSI is weak, and the overbought zone is more likely to signal a pause rather than a reversal in the broader bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a marked expansion in volatility, particularly between 17:15 and 04:00 ET. Price is currently near the lower band, suggesting a potential for mean reversion or a short-term bounce. However, the width of the bands implies that volatility is still high, and a break below the current support level at $224.50 could extend the decline.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the price decline, particularly between 17:15 and 05:30 ET, with the highest single candle volume at $321,043.568 SOL. This confirms bearish momentum. Notional turnover also peaked during this period, indicating strong selling interest. However, volume during the recent bounce has been relatively low, suggesting that the rebound may lack follow-through.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 237.00–224.31 move, the 38.2% retracement level is at $232.85, and the 61.8% level is at $226.38. Price appears to have tested the 61.8% level twice before resuming the downtrend. The 224.50–224.31 range now appears to be a potential key support zone for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering short positions when price breaks below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and RSI drops below 30, while closing the position on a stop loss near the nearest Fibonacci retracement level or upon a confirmed bearish candlestick pattern. Given the current price action, this strategy would have triggered a short entry in the early hours of October 4 and may offer further entry opportunities if price retests key support levels. The approach appears well-aligned with the current bearish momentum and could be further optimized by adding a trailing stop at the 20-period MA as price retraces.