Market Overview for Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) on 2025-09-24

• SOLUSDT opened at $219.24, peaked at $219.71, and closed at $213.60, forming a bearish trend over 24 hours.
• Volume surged to over 344,759 at 03:30 ET, indicating heightened bearish pressure during a sharp selloff.
• A strong bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 03:30 ET, aligning with a 6.1% drop and key support breach at $213.3.
• RSI reached oversold territory (~25) by 06:00 ET, suggesting potential short-term reversal or consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the selloff, reflecting increased volatility as the price fell to the lower band.

Opening Summary and Key Metrics

Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) opened at $219.24 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $219.71, and closed at $213.60 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. Over the 24-hour period, the total trading volume was approximately 1.77 million, with a notional turnover of $365.1 million. The price action reflects a bearish bias, marked by a sharp selloff in the early morning hours.

Structure and Candlestick Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a critical bearish engulfing pattern at 03:30 ET, where the candle opened at $213.6 and closed at $208.57, indicating strong bearish momentum. This pattern was supported by a large volume spike of 344,759 and a sharp break below the prior support level at $213.3. Additionally, a series of lower highs and tighter consolidation during the evening hours (20:00–04:00 ET) suggest the market is testing key levels before settling into a bearish bias. A doji formed near $213.61 at 06:00 ET, indicating indecision or possible exhaustion of the bearish move.

Moving Averages and Fibonacci Retracements

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover earlier in the day, reinforcing the downward momentum. On the daily chart, the price is trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a continuation of the medium-term bearish trend. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high of $219.71 and low of $207.41 indicate key support at 38.2% (~$213.29) and 61.8% (~$210.25). The price has already tested the 38.2% level and closed just above it, hinting at a possible bounce or continuation into the next level.

MACD and RSI Momentum Analysis

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early morning session, signaling bearish momentum. The histogram showed a large negative bar during the selloff, confirming the strength of the move. The RSI dropped into oversold territory by 06:00 ET (~25), suggesting potential for a near-term bounce or consolidation. However, no strong bullish divergence was observed between price and RSI, which limits the potential for a reversal and suggests further downside could be ahead if volume remains active.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility Analysis

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion during the 03:30 ET selloff, with the price falling to the lower band, a clear sign of increased volatility and bearish pressure. As the price retested the 38.2% Fibonacci level, the bands began to contract slightly, indicating possible consolidation. This may suggest a temporary pause in the bearish trend, though continued pressure below $213.3 could see further expansion of the bands and renewed volatility.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked sharply during the early morning selloff, with over 344,759 contracts traded at 03:30 ET, accompanied by a sharp decline in price. Notional turnover also increased significantly, confirming the bearish momentum. In the afternoon, volume remained relatively stable, with no significant divergence between price and turnover. However, a bearish divergence was observed between the price and volume during the consolidation phase, as price moved higher while volume remained muted.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this market condition could involve entering a short position upon the confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern, particularly when accompanied by a high volume spike and a break below a key Fibonacci support level. A stop-loss could be placed just above the high of the engulfing pattern, with a target at the next Fibonacci retracement level or a recent breakout level. For example, a short trade entered at $213.60 with a stop at $215.50 (high of the engulfing candle) and a target at $210.25 (61.8% retracement) could be tested for risk-reward balance and performance across multiple 15-minute intervals. This setup aligns with the observed technical patterns and momentum indicators, providing a structured approach to capitalizing on the bearish bias.